After sectarianism, the Assads now play the Israel card, putting Rami Makhlouf’s earlier warning into action. Will world leaders succumb to this blatant act of blackmail, as they have repeatedly done before? Or will they finally have the same epiphany that protesters had not too long ago, and realize that time has finally come for the Assads to go?
On the Israel Card
Of course, there was nothing spontaneous about the border incursions that took place in the Golan Heights today. If the fact that this is happening for the very first time since 1974 and only days after Bashar Al-Assad’s cousin, Rami Makhlouf, made his threatening statements is not a clear enough indication of this, then let’s mourn the death of reason, and glory in the triumph of impunity and willful blindness over everything decent.
The Assads have played the sectarian card at the beginning of the revolution, and now they are finally playing the Israel card. In other words, they are playing the same old cards that they had always played before hoping for the same outcome that they had repeatedly achieved before, because the world has always been willing to accommodate them. When the sectarian card was played before, there were many people in the country who, driven by their sectarian fears and political ideologies and prejudices, were willing to subscribe to the Assad Doctrine that put stability and security over freedom and reforms. The result was to give the Assads the upper-hand in any internal showdown.
By playing the Israel card, the Assads are trying to prey on the fears and concerns of their neighbors, especially Israel and its international allies. Previously, such manipulation had served to undermine efforts by Syria’s opposition groups to project themselves as a viable alternative capable of holding the country together and securing its borders. By talking about armed Salafist gangs and showing a willingness to be foolhardy enough to allow for border crossing by “radicals,” the Assads are saying that only they can secure the borders. The question before us in this connection: Is Israel, and the world, in the mood to be fooled again?
But today is not exactly like yesterday, there is one major difference here: the internal challenge currently facing the Assads is not an elitist one posed by a haphazard groups of opposition movements with little grassroots connections, and it’s not a terror campaign sponsored by Assads’ regional enemies, but an ingrown popular grassroots movement that found resonance and adherents all over the country, one that is fast becoming self-organizing, and one that showed enough maturity and sense of commitment to avoid violence despite all the provocations from Assads thugs. That’s the potential game changer. So long as the protesters are willing not to be cowed or fooled, and are willing to risk life and limb day after day by taking to the streets to challenge Assads’ rule, the world now has to be more careful about its calculations, for it is the very salvageability of the Assad regime that is now in question. A return to the status quo ante is no longer possible, and a weakened Assad regime might just be far more dangerous than the alternative. A case in point: today’s incursion into the Golan. The very fact that the Assads are willing to play this card in this way is a great indication that they are no longer “reliable.”
A regime that is killing its own people with impunity and is doing its very best to saw sectarian discord in order to instigate a civil strife, and a regime that is willing to plunge the country into a destructive, needless and unwinnable war against a neighbor with whom they have maintained a quasi-peace treaty for over 40 years, is not a regime worthy of saving. Indeed, the Assads have lost all legitimacy, and they must go. The Ghouls of War need to be tamed. Those inside and outside Syria who are worried about an alternative should take a proactive approach towards the matter by trying to engage it, shape it and support it, rather than standing on the sidelines and bemoaning their fortune, or worse, standing with regime and hoping to tip its hands against the peaceful protesters.
By carrying banners over the last 2 weeks praising Turkish PM, Recep Tayip Erdogan, for his supportive statements, and calling for UN intervention, protesters have shown that they are indeed willing to engage the international community, and are expecting it to come to their aid. Let’s not disappoint them.
Army troops trying to carry out a meaningful dialogue with protesters
http://youtu.be/Yu1Y_k1Wh38
Banyas / Bayda: this new video confirms what happened in the village of Bayda four weeks ago, when security forces and Shabbiha gangs invaded the village and terrorized the local inhabitants.
http://youtu.be/-paqNnRwoGU
Homs / Bab Dreib / May 14: nightly vigil in support of Talkalakh
Sunday 15, 2011
7 more people were killed in Sunday in the town of Tel Kalakh (Talkalakh) as army troops and security forces continued their crackdown against the local population who recently rejected Baath rule and Assad’s leadership. Snipers have taken up positions in many key locations, including the rooftop of the local hospital. Hundreds more poured across the border and into Lebanon’s Wadi Khalid region, some of them were carrying their wounded family members with them. An old woman who has been shot later died in a Lebanese hospital. The siege of Tel Kalakh continues, although Syrian officials say that the military operation is near completion. Meanwhile, many towns across held vigils in support of their compatriots in Tel Kalakh and other besieged communities.
Meanwhile, the situation in Deraa City has somewhat eased off following the pullout of army tanks from the vicinity of the Al-Omary Mosque. The tanks remain within the city’s periphery. In Homs, the neighborhood of Bab Al-Sibaa and the town of Rastan witnessed major anti-regime rallies as well. The Bab Al-Sibaa protest was disperse when security forces opened fire on demonstrators, but exact casualty figures are not yet known.
Around noon, 4 Syrians were killed and dozens wounded when Israeli soldiers opened fire on groups crossing the borders into the Occupied Golan Heights.
Brilliant reporting, Ammar -- I was especially struck by the video from Talbisseh, as this shows signs with cross and crescent, and I trust that your translation of the chants is correct: this was not a sectarian crowd.
ReplyDeleteI wish the regime-supporters (and the wavering) at Josh Landis's Syria Comment could ponder that particular video. Lately, just in the last three days, I detect a movement in the regime-supporting folks. Whereas earlier they did not even discuss any demonstrator's demands, they now are positing the actual reform steps they would like to see, and they are also being more frank in their fledgling criticism of a regime that they otherwise support.
They want peaceful demonstrations, a repeal of Article 8 and so on. In other words, they are naming and sharing the 'legitimate demands' of elements of the opposition. This agreement between folks who otherwise mutually demonized each other is the best sign I have seen that the tide has turned . . . the fall of the wall of fear is beginning to take its effects to the otherwise change-averse folks.
Please keep up the good work! It is much appreciated.
This is very encouraging, thank you for your support William.
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