The situation on the ground in Syria begs for credible proactive
and pragmatic leadership on part of the opposition and the international
community, if we are to prevent a major humanitarian crisis from taking place.
Monday 21, 2011
On Sunday, 14 people were killed: 11 in Homs, 2 in
Idlib and 1 in Hama.
On Monday,
15 people were killed, 12 of them in Homs City’s Bayadah Neighborhood which
witnessed random shelling by pro-Assad militias.
Over
50,000 people are reported
to have migrated from Homs to Tartous over the last 8 weeks on account of the
ongoing conflict. The IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons) are said to hail from
all sectarian backgrounds, but the majority is said to be made up of Alawites
and Christians, as most Sunnis preferred to go to the rural areas around Homs.
Meanwhile,
back in Homs City, Sunni and Alawite religious scholars issued on Sunday
a joint statement decrying sectarian-motivated kidnappings and killings, saying
that such practices are strictly prohibited under any and all conditions.
Links
I am currently undertaking a new European tour, which will
cause some interruptions in updating the blog, I apologize for that, but things
will return to normal by early December.
The Freudian Slips Continue
For all
the talk about descent into civil war, and I am one of those who are warning
against scenario, we still need to put things in perspective here. And who is better
than Assad Foreign Minister, Walid Moallem to help us do that? Referring to
Mrs. Clinton recent warnings of an impending civil war in Syria, he said in
a press conference on Monday: ““When Mrs. Clinton says the opposition
is well-armed... it is, as they say in English, ‘wishful thinking’.”
Indeed,
the Assads do still have an overwhelming monopoly on the use of violence in
Syria, we should all bear this in mind when examining the situation in Syria:
we still a clear aggressor (the regime)) and a clear victim (the people) here.
The two sides are not alike, and will not be.
Departures in the Shadow of Civil War
My recent
presentation at the conference “Departures in the Arab World: Developments and
Prospects,” organized by the German Green Party in Berlin under the auspices of
Kerstin Müller, Speaker for Foreign Affairs, focused on the need for
NATO-supported intervention in Syria as the only way to prevent descent into
nation-wide civil war and manage a transition towards a democratic form of
governance in which minority rights are protected. Naturally, this was not a
popular stance, but it received a sympathetic audience, simply because it
marked a radical departure from my erstwhile opposition to such policy. I
argued that the situation in the country has deteriorated to the level where
purist stand on this issue is no longer tenable, and that the Assads have
succeeded in imposing the logic of violence on all. The inability of world
leaders to enunciate a stronger position on developments in a timely manner
have paved the way to this, I argued, and if the same leader continue to
dither, they will be morally responsible for the bloodbaths that will take
place. Intervention will be costly in human and material terms, I know, but the
cost of civil war will be higher.
The
counterargument to this was made by Muriel Asseburg of the German Institute for
International and Security Affairs in Berlin. While agreeing with me on my assessment
of the situation, Dr. Asseburg saw that my call for the creation of safe havens
and supporting the Free Syrian Army will lead to an increased militarization of
the situation, a development that will have dire consequence for Syria’s
minority groups who, she believes, will be signaled out for revenge. On the
surface of it, the argument seems to make sense. But in reality, it’s pretty
naïve.
For you
see, we are indeed heading towards further militarization, and since most of
the defectors tend to be Sunnis, and most loyalists Alawites, whatever clash
will take place is bound to acquire a confessional coloring. Let’s not forget
here that both loyalists and defectors are graduates from the most sectarian
institution in the country: the military. The loyalists are already acquiring
weapons and logistical support from Russia, Iran and elsewhere, and defectors
will soon begin to acquire them from Gulf states, directly or tacitly. They
will never reach parity, but their numbers and determination will make up the
difference. And defectors will be beholden to those who supplies them with
weapons, and the political opposition and NATO will have little influence over
the process and therefore little ability to establish limits and impose rules.
But when NATO takes the lead here, acting through a regional alliance and
through an established political opposition coalition, pragmatic and savvy
enough to establish a working relation with the FSA and their military council,
then NATO and the political opposition will have some measure of control over
developments and might be able to establishment some rules for the ensuing
engagement that can protect civilians and minority groups from revenge. Through
involvement, one can induce the desired trends by introducing a system of
rewards and incentives. The task will be a complex one for sure, but with NATO
on the sidelines it will be on impossible one. In short, whoever provides
support to the FSA will be able to influence their agenda and tactics. For the only way I know of to
retain some influence over paramilitary groups is to support them thus
introducing an element of indebtedness and dependence into the mix. The
relationship will have to go both ways of course, and that is very problematic
indeed, it is also the nature of the beast. There is no substitute for
vigilance in these circumstances.
It is for
this reason that I advised the SNC and other opposition groups to engage and
recognize the Free Syrian Army, warning that failure to do so will push Riyad
Al-Ass’aad and colleagues to go their own way and establish their own council,
especially considering their popularity and credibility in the streets.
Instead, my colleagues in the opposition dismissed Col. Al-Ass’aad and
colleagues as “simpletons” who fail to comprehend the political realities of
the world. Post-independence politicians made the same mistake, and paved the
way for 50 years of life under military rule. For these “simpletons” only
appear so in the academic sense, but as far as the ways of the world are
concerned, they are far more savvy than we give them credit, and what they lack
in savviness they can compensate for in brute force. More importantly, they
remain far closer to the grassroots than any of us. And it’s already showing.
The
situation on the ground in Syria begs for credible proactive and pragmatic
leadership on part of the opposition and the international community, if we are
to prevent a major humanitarian crisis from taking place.
Those who
don’t want blood on their hand should understand that every choice they make
today, even that of silence, will result in blood being shed, and there is no
telling which choice will result in more or less bloodshed, and which choice is
the ethical one. Personally, I can only tell you at this stage which choice has
the better chance of seeing this revolution achieves its main goal of toppling
the regime: it is the choice that embraces a NATO-supported intervention. Then
stars are not aligned that way at this stage, I know. But it’s our job to get
them there, rather than brood over it.
Military Diplomacy
FSA
continues its outreach efforts to Syrian expat community and regional powers.
In this clip a member of the Military Council addresses by phone the crowd of
protesters standing outside the Syrian Embassy in Paris. He describes Col.
Riyad Al-Ass’aad as a hero and everybody applauds. No political leader has
managed to garner such a consensus http://youtu.be/R-Pr7Zsp_98
In this
interview with Col. Riad Al-Ass’aad, the man comes out as a very
practical, down-to-earth and even charismatic guy. He doesn’t say anything new,
so I won’t provide a summary of what he says. Just observe his mannerisms. He
comes out as a man of the people, unlike SNC leader Bourhane Ghalioun, and the
plethora of other pretenders to the throne we see on Arab media. Hence the
appeal and the danger http://youtu.be/8arRIIt8PTU
In this piece in Arabic, Syria’s
foremost political philosopher and one of her most modest intellectuals, former
political prisoner Yassin Al-Haj Saleh points out the danger of having the
military leadership take over the management of the revolution at this stage,
echoing my sentiments above. He is not for international intervention though,
at least not so far, but like so many of my purist colleagues, he offers no
solution at the stage other than the hope that demilitarization will somehow
take place, allowing for a halt in the protests and for Bashar Al-Assad to have
an epiphany allowing him to call for a presidential referendum while easing
controls over state media and curbing security apparatuses. Yassin is not naïve
as to believe that something like that can happen, as all his previous writings
indicate, he is just desperate and afraid, not for himself, but for the country
and the people. So am I!
In a related
development, the Free Syrian Army issued
a statement on Sunday retracting its erstwhile claims of responsibility
for the recent attacks on the security and Baath Party headquarters in central
Damascus.
On Sunday, the commander
of a group of Syrian army defectors retracted earlier claims that his followers
launched an unprecedented attack inside the capital, Damascus, in an
embarrassing turnaround for the armed movement. Riad al-Asaad, a Turkey-based
air force colonel who heads the Free Syrian Army, said in a video posted on the
group's Facebook page Sunday evening that Assad's government was trying to
tarnish the image of the revolution. "We did not target the party building
in Damascus and we will not target any civilian installation," said
al-Asaad, who was wearing his military uniform.
Indeed,
the style of the attacks, according to eye-witness reports, which consisted of
throwing rocket-propelled grenades outside the buildings, seems to be
uncharacteristic of the kind of attacks promised and those previously actually carried
out by the FSA, which included attempts to storm and plant explosives inside
the targeted premises, and avoid damaging non-military buildings or endangering
civilians. This lends more credence to reports that the attacks were indeed
staged by Assad’s own security forces to discredit the FSA, whose popularity is
growing by the day in the City and across the country.
As to why
FSA spokesman claimed the attacks to begin with, this seems related to
decentralized nature of the group, where different units plan their own missions
according to their own timetable in accordance with previously agreed
guidelines. As such, the media center of the FSA may have rushed to claim the
attack before checking with their local affiliates to see if they have indeed
been involved.
But even
if we assume that elements affiliated with the FSA, or that amateur
FSA-sympathizers, were responsible for the attacks, the rush to distance itself
from them shows certain sensitivity to public opinion and image, which makes
the FSA a more trustworthy entity amiable to be accepting restrictions on is behavior
commensurate with both domestic and international concerns. This is
encouraging.
Opposition Blues
The
following clip by Al-Arabiya, shows that with the launch of the newly
formed National Initiative for Change, which I referred in my earlier post, the
Syrian opposition is now made up of the following main groups http://youtu.be/zFjPIOPjh4w:
1) The
Syrian National Council: made up mostly of Muslim Brotherhood with the addition of
some in-country activists and popular committees and some independent figures
like Burhane Ghalioun.
2) The
National Initiative for Change: largely an offshoot of the Antalya Conference
for Change, dominated by liberal figures working in collaboration with Kurds,
tribal figures and representatives of confessional minorities
3) The
National Coordination Committees: an amalgam of traditional Damascus-based
opposition groups.
4) The
Syrian Revolution General Commission: a group of in-country activists and protest
leaders that supports the SNC but remains outside of it, largely in the hope of
negotiating its way to controlling one-third of the seats at some point – a
highly unrealistic expectation.
5) Independent
figures, such Michel Kilo, Aref Dalila and the recently released Kamal Labwani.
The UK today urged the
opposition – uncoordinated and beset by personality differences – to unite,
after Foreign Secretary William Hague met with rival groups.
“I’ve emphasized the
importance to them of achieving a united platform and a unified body among the
opposition,” he said. “At an extreme moment in their nation’s history it is
important for opposition groups to be able to put aside their own differences
and come to a united view of the way forward.”
Britain could not offer
formal recognition, “partly because there are differing groups.”
“There isn’t a single
national council as there was in Libya … and the international community has
not yet reached that point,” he said.
Other Videos:
In Yabroud / Rural
Damascus / Nov 20, residents demonstrate in front of the local Baath
headquarters http://youtu.be/cIM7N7eE4gI
So, and as the regime crackdown in Homs, more and more areas in Rural Damascus
are joining the revolution, and their slogans hearken back on their early days
of the revolution: the simple and all-telling “the people want to topple the
regime.”
Elsewhere in Rural
Damascus, defectors form a new Brigade, the Liberty Brigade, under the
auspices of the Free Syrian Army (Nov 20) http://youtu.be/jBxiAqxNTeo Defections
continue day after day, and the number of 17,000 defectors now begins to sound
credible. These defectors hail from the Air Force Academy in Homs (Nov
21) http://youtu.be/XykQWXJAGK4
Nov 20: Locals a town in Hauran/Deraa
Province, manage to sabotage an armored vehicle. We are told that occupants
of the armored vehicle were taken prisoner and delivered to the FSA http://youtu.be/OGh2b9cuViA
An all-women
demonstration in Insha’aat Neighborhood in Homs City (Nov 21) calls for
an intervention by the FSA http://youtu.be/mXKjRmVYbyg
In Khaldiyeh Neighborhood
in Homs City (Nov 20), and due to fuel shortages, people invent their own
make-shift stoves to get warm using wood chips http://youtu.be/C9DfKe5JeT4 The
inventors says “we have brains, we don’t need Bashar’s petrol.” He then adds: “We
have distributors in all provinces.” Another look at the final product http://youtu.be/3bnRVVfUjlk
But of course, the
pounding of residential neighborhoods continues: Bab Al-Sibaa (Nov 21) http://youtu.be/TPDTOG4HAIk
And of course, people
keep taking to the streets: Bab Houd (Sign says “what are you waiting for
Erdogan, they violated your borders and killed your own people?”) http://youtu.be/NUSSv2u8kxI Deir
Baalbah http://youtu.be/sl_4E6zOzsI
And this is Baba Amr, the neighborhood that pro-Assad militias pounded
for weeks and have allegedly taking control of “the people want international
protection” http://youtu.be/NUSSv2u8kxI
And this is Bayadah, the neighborhood that was pounded earlier tolday http://youtu.be/rDDzkRMb0-I
And of course, demonstrations
took place in communities all over Syria, and the demands remain the same now,
as this sign from Assaly Suburb in Damascus (Nov 21) shows: No fly zone,
safe haven, protection of civilians, and support to the Free Syrian Army” http://youtu.be/ncjvEDjtbSc
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