A “coalition of the
willing,” even if it only included a handful of countries, would prove enough
to topple the Assad regime. But someone in the international community needs to
take the initiative on this matter. Hint, hint, wink, wink, our neighbor in that
big old White House!
Wednesday 18, 2012
Today’s death toll: 23. The Breakdown: 9
in Homs City, 2 defectors in Qseir in Homs Province, 2 women in Ma’arrat
Al-Nouman in Idlib Province, 1 in Manbij in Aleppo Province, and 2 in rural
Damascus who died of wounds received on prior occasions...
Links
Steven
Cook: “The
conventional wisdom in Washington and beyond is that Bashar al-Assad will fall
on his own and that an intervention would be counterproductive, but with
thousands dying we need to reconsider those assumptions”
BY
Ammar Abdulhamid and Ken Ballen: “The protesters and all Syrians who yearn for
freedom are unambivalent in their call for international intervention. America
faces a fundamental choice. It can stand behind democratic aspirations fully,
or it can continue to rely on 19th century notions of power politics and
influence.
After 5
days of shelling and foiled attempts at incursion, loyalist troops were forced
to negotiate a ceasefire with local representatives of the Free Syrian Army
stationed in the town of Zabadani along the borders with Lebanon. The
terms of the ceasefire call for lifting the siege on the town and refraining
from any further attempts at incursion, in exchange for maintaining a small
security presence in town. Locals say the terms were negotiated by officers
taking their orders from Assef Chawkat, Assad’s brother-in-law and the man
believed to be responsible for orchestrating all current sweep operations in
the country. The negotiations happened through the auspices of local
dignitaries, that is, there were no direct meetings between defectors and
loyalists. The occasional pounding that took place earlier on Wednesday came to
a quick halt and the pullout to points further outside the town seems to have
proceeded as agreed.
Still, there are legitimate
concerns that the ceasefire in Zabadani was made because the regime intends on
carrying out major sweep operations in the restive region of Eastern Ghoutah to
the East of Damascus. But even if this were the case, the fact that the regime
needed to negotiate a ceasefire in order to ready itself for the alleged
operations, is a major indication of how embattled its troops are at this
stage.
With this
in mind, the arguments
that Ken Ballen and I made in our column in CNN international website earlier
today were pretty much on the money: small groups of “ragtag defectors from the
Syrian Army, joined by civilians… have fought Assad's loyalist troops and
militias nearly to a standstill with only light arms, obtained locally.” As
such, all that Syrian rebels need at this stage is some support, and they can
take care of the business of bringing down the Assad regime on their own. This
is what Ken and I recommended as far as measures that the U.S. can take:
“Providing
[the rebels] with more sophisticated gear, including RPGs, night vision goggles
and better communication equipment, would likely enable them to neutralize
Assad's tanks and possibly free entire towns. Implementing a no-fly zone could
also prevent Assad from laying these towns, once free, to waste. A naval
blockade of Syrian ports would help prevent arms shipments to the regime… If
Russia persists in threatening a veto at the U.N. Security Council, the United
States should call for an international conference on Syria, with the Arab
League, the Islamic Conference, NATO, Japan, India, Brazil and all concerned
states. This would be a viable path to legitimate multilateral intervention
while circumventing the Russian veto.”
In other
words a “coalition of the willing,” even if it only included a handful of
countries, would prove enough to topple the Assad regime. But someone in the
international community needs to take the initiative on this matter.
Meanwhile,
unless the Assads have reconciled themselves to surrendering power and
negotiating a way out, the ceasefire won’t hold for long and it will definitely
not be expanded to include Homs, Idlib and other restive parts of the country. Zabadani
remains under siege, and the situation remains tense.
Rallies took place in protest communities throughout the country. The
following videos highlight the most important developments that took place on Wednesday
January 18, 2012.
Damascus
Zabadani (northwest): despite the cease
fire agreement, the sounds of occasional shelling can still be heard in the
distance in the morning http://youtu.be/0nqrour2VsE
But, by noon the pullout had begun http://youtu.be/LKWWk8KH-w0
This is one of the checkpoints that were vacated http://youtu.be/Fbh0uQzS9tY Locals rally
to celebrate their victory http://youtu.be/KzzGP6s33sg
, http://youtu.be/eYuIEFnzEC8 Women
took part http://youtu.be/N7qLtPlU5pU
Local members of the FSA make an appearance http://youtu.be/rl9f68A9U1k Locals take
back to the streets at night http://youtu.be/byBIXNO1hYU
, http://youtu.be/3de9cMXL9lU With
women taking part as well http://youtu.be/AyY5wrG5t_g
Fireworks were involved http://youtu.be/IqAfOZsv8Ck
This is a tour of some of the damaged homes, courtesy local members of the FSA http://youtu.be/uhjOu7k98kw
Kisweh (south): a mother grieves for
her late son in front of AL monitors http://youtu.be/RLr5DPrwt2I
Other women took part in a nearby rally http://youtu.be/_f4oOcy9DLQ
Qatana (south): A martyr http://youtu.be/VX_qpi0ZEXY
Saqba (Eastern Ghoutah): martyr http://youtu.be/jOgiTg-obxk And a rally http://youtu.be/Kw1MQVbmiLU , http://youtu.be/7k8EjAYKYZQ Other
communities in Eastern Ghoutah continue to rally: Arbeen http://youtu.be/ipXpcPOsT2w Hamouriyeh
http://youtu.be/uBAAG7g0PlM Harasta
http://youtu.be/agmWRbux6kc Zamalka
http://youtu.be/qg3W9W__nBE Kafar
Batna http://youtu.be/qB4XHt6gPUU
Babbila http://youtu.be/Yelg2Z_1Ixg
Douma http://youtu.be/IOP5GwUIr0U
Damascus City: Old Mazzeh http://youtu.be/Y6WWhKeylTs , http://youtu.be/EisEr8-W6PQ Barzeh
http://youtu.be/Lno7x2kvz9s , http://youtu.be/5yXnnwj7jnU Jobar
http://youtu.be/oKT2BTES9Qo Loyalists
storm Qaboun in the cover of dark http://youtu.be/yVYvUgSZzxA
Still, locals rallied chanting “we won’t bow down” http://youtu.be/TnbZKYE_9xo
Homs City:
The pounding of Bayadah
http://youtu.be/4zSitW4ZHmk , http://youtu.be/-mTk44AKghY , http://youtu.be/9vx4-bkoZEo The wounded http://youtu.be/7h1uGjrHkPw , http://youtu.be/64GMgxuWAac , http://youtu.be/dq-DjEqT16Q , http://youtu.be/yf3Iv8jDV3s A martyr http://youtu.be/pmo9DssuTCY A new unit
of defectors and local recruit is formed to defend the Neighborhood http://youtu.be/KZCXHMnwxSw
The pounding of Deir
Baalbah http://youtu.be/IIdIc8Bdijw
, http://youtu.be/nnXJc9oA4UE Deir
Baalbah A martyr http://youtu.be/ZgLyXWT5giE
Another http://youtu.be/7LLFWM7q8cc Another
http://youtu.be/gZr1Wgj-24E A funeral
http://youtu.be/gu9jywMt2yQ , http://youtu.be/AhNZzpJXZFw
Baba Amr: A martyr http://youtu.be/dzMQ0ziFqQQ Another http://youtu.be/gFbrypX0KY8 A funeral http://youtu.be/R5KzLG2nKCw Impact of
shelling in Cairo Street http://youtu.be/gfJoDDVUKCA
Still, local women take to the streets http://youtu.be/HezxoxBjCAc
followed by the men http://youtu.be/zglR-3wgTBU
Locals come out again at night http://youtu.be/hi22-Z0V3_0
Al-Rifai A martyr http://youtu.be/ojWCyQvHPSo A body lies
unapproachable in the street http://youtu.be/njJZif3e8Oo
While tanks move freely http://youtu.be/hz30zvu7y7M
Karm Al-Zeitun comes under fire http://youtu.be/axFlij-S88I A funeral in
Malaab comes under fire but mourners remain defiant http://youtu.be/MvxcOJQsK4Q
Bab Al-Sibaa: closed shops, mounds
of garbage and snipers http://youtu.be/VN0i4USV_NA
Some of the poorest inhabitants are forced to forage among the garage in search
of anything edible or useful http://youtu.be/ZvHBHsqRV88
New defectors and new
units http://youtu.be/q0Mscvb0mjM
Idlib:
Idlib City: A martyr http://youtu.be/VIuNbQdknVY A funeral http://youtu.be/FJ2gy_C2BJk
The pounding of Khan
Shaikhoon http://youtu.be/yQDV7B8da14
, http://youtu.be/j5RKfIEandQ Kafar
Takhareem comes under fire including the local mosque http://youtu.be/UM_rmKBhiYw A car
catches fire http://youtu.be/NvYRZg6yHpk
Impact of shelling http://youtu.be/wJrNLV1JIfY
Ma’arrat Al-Nouman: funeral for a local
activist http://youtu.be/-G7ZbcYlD88 A
funeral http://youtu.be/jc-nah1L8IY Ghadfah
A funeral http://youtu.be/o9Qav4ecnfM
Firkaya A martyr http://youtu.be/vW9JjOhnDDk
In Kafroumah,
local mock AL monitors http://youtu.be/qwx36gEUD9E
Hama City:
Janoub Al-Malaab a Martyr http://youtu.be/xsUnnZ--yHs A funeral http://youtu.be/J69WKV893x0
Mizraab: tanks make a return
http://youtu.be/y6-XupvrRus , http://youtu.be/KRNE-O63Lcg , http://youtu.be/e_pBRIpKgPc
Aleppo
City:
University students
continue to lead the protest movement in the city, with this rally by the
students at the College of Literature http://youtu.be/abBYXJn6nsQ
Aleppo
Province:
The rural areas of
Aleppo will probably become the next hotspot: Bayanoun http://youtu.be/ipXpcPOsT2w Anadan
http://youtu.be/e6Zfbmcdlss Marei
http://youtu.be/8c5BpZipBp4 Hayyan
http://youtu.be/50rKZAzVKGY Atarib
http://youtu.be/b1WVXxxsU9M
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