So long as Russia
remains adamant at watering down any UN resolution dealing with Syria, it should
be clear to all that she cannot be part of any solution.
Sunday May 27, 2012
Death toll: 51,
including 25 in Hama City, 9 in Damascus City (Midan, Naher Eisheh and Assaly),
5 in Damascus suburbs (Yalda, Daraya, Douma and Ein Mneen), 6 in Homs city, 4
in Idlib and 2 in Daraa.
UN Monitors in Syria put
the number of victims of Houla Massacre at 116 dead and over 300 wounded.
News
Op-Eds & Special Reports
The fact is, despite restrictions on media and
aid organizations operating in Syria, the world knows what is happening there,
it just doesn't know what to do about it. Will the Houla killings change
anything, or will they be just another bloody footnote in a conflict that has
killed an unknown number of people? The U.N. stopped counting Syria's dead
months ago. NATO has repeatedly said it has no plans to intervene in the
conflict. The U.N. secretary general has admitted that "at this time, we
don't have any Plan B" for Syria. It's hardly reassuring given that Plan
A, the six-point Annan initiative, is barely viable.
Schemes & Massacres
That this
is indeed the essence of Obama’s Administration’s approach on Syria has been
quite apparent for months now. That’s why when I finally had a chance to go to
Moscow and meet with some of Russia’s policy people, I took it. The trip, which
took place between May 18 and 25, gave
me an opportunity to know for myself how hard of a challenge changing Russia’s
position will be, especially considering how attached to the status quo its
leadership seems to be.
Now, and
after spending a week there, and while I wouldn’t necessarily judge the
differences between U.S. and Russia’s positions over Syria as unbridgeable,
let’s just say that there are quite a few circles that need to be squared first
before agreement is reached. The Russians are not attached to Assad, but they
are attached to the regime and their base in Tartous. What the “regime” means
to the Russians is Alawite control of security and military apparatuses. If
regime survival under this formula is not possible, than the powers-that-be in
Russia would not be too opposed to the fragmentation of Syria so long as
coastal areas remain under Alawite control, which is the likely outcome in this
case. To ensure getting their desired outcome, the Russians will continue
propping up the regime by supplying
it with arms, which they claim are not meant to be used against
protesters but against future western intervention, and by continuing to be a stumbling
block in the way of any meaningful
UN-led action or condemnation.
Still,
believe it or not, that is not even the real problem. After all, and as the NY
Times report indicates, and considering their growing disaffection with Syria’s
fractious opposition, the Obama Administration is indeed seeking a deal that
eases Assad’s way out but keeps the regime pretty much intact. But who can sell
this plan to the revolutionaries? That’s the real question and the real
problem. The off-switch to this revolution, if it exists, lies squarely in the
hands of young protest leaders scattered throughout the country, and the arrangement
sought by Obama and the Russians is simply too cynical to satisfy them. The
protest, the crackdown, the defiance, the reprisals, and the massacres all will
continue even with the Assads out of the picture so long as what gets put in
place after his departure continues to lack popular legitimacy. And popular
legitimacy cannot be given to a regime that is still dominated by military and
security apparatuses that are still dominated in their turn by Alawite generals
and officers. Pure and simple.
In other
words, if the Obama Administration is pinning its hopes on squaring circles in
order to reach an agreement with Russia on a deal that will be dead on arrival
as far as most Syrians are concerned, then, Syria’s fate as a country has
already been sealed. She will be no more. Russian policymakers insist that this
is an acceptable outcome as far as they are concerned, but how about
American officials? Is the dissolution of Syria as a state acceptable for them
as well?
But then,
perhaps Senator McCain is right in his
assessment of President Obama’s policy at this stage. Perhaps, all that U.S. officials want to
achieve at this stage is to kick this bucket until after the elections, without
considering the serious consequences of further delays.
Be that as
it may the massacre in Houla indicates clearly that we are quickly
running out of time. Just consider the following facts:
There have
been high level assassinations among the ranks of the Assad security
establishment; its victims might have included Assad’s own brother-in-law and
one of the chief architects of the crackdown so far. We still cannot be sure of
that, but Assad’s failure to attend the opening session of the Parliament as
per protocol and his continued silence at this stage lends some credence to
claims in this regard. Some speculate that the massacres in Houla came as a
reprisal for these assassinations. Not that the Assads have ever needed any
justification for perpetrating their brand of terror beyond the challenge to
their legitimacy.
Meanwhile,
the town of Eizaz in Aleppo Province continues to be pounded in retaliation for
the kidnapping of 14 Hezbollah operatives who happened to be in the area.
Hezbollah media outlets claim that the 14 were pilgrims returning from Iran,
sources close to the kidnappers say interrogations prove that these were
Hezbollah operative and that one of them is a nephew of Hezbollah leader Hassan
Nasrallah. Indirect negotiations have been taken place over the last couple of
days, but they have so far led to naught due to continued pounding by pro-Assad
militias.
Today, the
pounding of Hama City and the new massacre that was perpetrated there underscores
the complete failure and irrelevance of Annan’s Mission.
So, what
we have now is a situation that is quickly spiraling out of control, and the Obama
Administration might need to adjust its timetable accordingly. Time is not on
the side of stability and reason in this conflict. Elements of the Old
Regime might need to be preserved, but the U.S. needs to avoid the
miscalculations of Russian officials: instability in Syria will be product of
regime survival not regime change. Bringing Syrian protesters to endorse, no
matter how reluctantly, any deal that allows for Assad’s departure has to
include serious assurances that the upcoming change will be far-reaching and
not simply decorative, otherwise nothing will be accomplished.
Note: It
should be borne in mind that locals in Houla made clear from the beginning that
most victims of the infamous massacre were slaughtered by pro-Assad militias
who stormed into town after it was pounded by regular troops. For Russian
officials to use this fact to deflect blame from the regime is grotesque. For
the UN resolution to fail to name pro-Assad militias as culprits paves the
ground for further acts of genocide.
Video Highlights
Sweden’s
children try to draw attention to the massacres in Syria in their own way http://youtu.be/zyMqHWAh-2c
Hama
City:
A new
massacre took place in the city today due to the pounding http://youtu.be/kyFMiwZofls , http://youtu.be/T5sc2IsxjHo , http://youtu.be/G1gsYoGBjCw , http://youtu.be/yknYRA8ryZE of Janoub
Al-Malaab, Mashaa Al-Fouroussiyeh and Al-Hadir Neighborhoods.
Tanks roll in http://youtu.be/YTeFLMorKuA
Homes catch fire http://youtu.be/HH5gpZoLQpk
The
Massacre http://youtu.be/W-Uuc7Z06P4 ,
http://youtu.be/GASV1FJmpKQ , http://youtu.be/uJIaOu4G81Y , http://youtu.be/1W2piTx9SU8 Many women
were among today’s dead http://youtu.be/cqguM8psn4k
, http://youtu.be/85c--hMVk6Y , http://youtu.be/0KvfgeGN4yE Martyrs
bagged and tagged http://youtu.be/Aa3Td6uPHQ0
, http://youtu.be/uBnyV4I_NvU Children
were included of course http://youtu.be/76A99_SiWQ4
, http://youtu.be/YfKeCaoZU0M Words
of defiance from the brother of two who were killed today http://youtu.be/gURz0HwBkz4 Treating the
wounded http://youtu.be/KP7PKlUBESM ,
http://youtu.be/mKEn_I_gBn8 , http://youtu.be/eUtA4Tch_Mk At night,
the pounding resumes http://youtu.be/GDXt7FAFEZU
, http://youtu.be/GqkLtVNzIQo , http://youtu.be/dEnB8JjQCws Til dawn http://youtu.be/vs_3Y-zwhCw
Damascus:
Pro-Assad militias
open fire against protesters in Midan District http://youtu.be/hTVlR4tzai8 It’s
militias likes these who perpetrated the massacres in Houla. Rescuing the
wounded http://youtu.be/tYXzfzizdKg ,
http://youtu.be/eSLt6pTS2PI , http://youtu.be/2mqQyKCzHbs A martyr http://youtu.be/G_-Zkp9T3rk
A similar
scene unfolds in the nearby neighborhood of Naher Eisheh http://youtu.be/HqLgWtUtvKA Rescuing a
wounded http://youtu.be/368FO1gXjas ,
http://youtu.be/qP5TWjuuvUE
Moadamiya Suburb comes under fire
at night http://youtu.be/MNkpotBuLfU
Homs
Houla: four more bodies of children
discovered http://youtu.be/veTMbZH_0VU
Families take advantage of the presence of UN monitors to leave town http://youtu.be/v5hVRN4854Q And another
ghost town is created http://youtu.be/0OfxX9CFXp0
Idlib
The town
of Khan Shaikhoon comes under renewed pounding http://youtu.be/_uG2qtLKNso , http://youtu.be/b0O0bKQ8vD4 , http://youtu.be/4fmtM7rcAfY One of the
loyalist checkpoints laying siege to the town http://youtu.be/i3SM2AKjalA
Mister Abdulhamid! There were reports, that wives and children of top officials from Assad regime has flied from Damascus airport. What do You think, are these reports true? And miracle of defianse of syrians. Despite horror massacre Houla went on protest! Unbelieveable.
ReplyDeleteIndeed, the courage and perseverance of our people is amazing. We are certainly making up for all those years of silence and fear. AS for flight of officials reports, I am not really sure what to make of them, but barring evidence, I tend to be dubious.
ReplyDelete