The International
Community has long shifted its focus on Syria from supporting democratic transition
to containing an impending “catastrophe,” to borrow Hillary Clinton’s term. But
in both cases they remain unsure as to what needs to be done. That lingering uncertainty
is exactly why catastrophe is fast becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Saturday July 08, 2012
Today’s Death toll: 60. The Breakdown: 14 in
Damascus Suburbs, 12 in Homs, 10 In Daraa, 7 in Deir Ezzor, 6 in Hama, 6 in
Idlib and 5 in Aleppo.
Many towns and cities across the country came under heavy pounding
today, including:
Karak, Yadoudeh, Sheikh Miskeen, Ghabaghib, Bosra, Maarabha, Izraa,
Mseifrah, Ghariyeh and Daraa City (Daraa Province), Deir Jammal, Eizaz,
Hreitan and Anadan (Aleppo Province), Deir Ezzor City and Mayadeen (Deir
Ezzor Province), Homs city, Houla, Rastan, Qusayr, Tal Kalakh and Talbisseh
(Homs Province), Douma, Jisreen, Diyabiyeh Misraba and Madaya (Damascus
Suburbs), Hama City and Sahel Al-Ghab (Hama Province), Khan
Shaikhoon (Idlib Province).
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A Change to End All Change
The Scenario:
A
national unity government is agreed under the presidency of a Sunni figurehead.
Assad is out, but rather than going to Russia, he goes to Lattakia where he is
the undisputed leader of an ethnically cleansed Alawite-majority enclave, and
still in charge from behind the scenes of manipulating the national army and
security apparatuses which remain for years to come under Alawite control. Kurdish
enclaves are granted autonomy, and the rest of the country is held together by
a Sunni Arab-majority government. FSA groups are gradually reintegrated into
the regular army.
This, it
seems, is the current scenario being thrust upon us. There are myriad problems with
this scenario, but the most important one is the fact that events on the ground
are moving too fast for it. This scenario requires a lot of micromanagement,
but no party, domestic, regional or international, is well-positioned or
equipped to do it effectively. This is why Russia wants Iran to be on board, but
even their combined efforts cannot stand the test of unfolding realities.
People
need to get real on Syria.
Assad’s
recent interview with Germany’s ARD TV provides us with few revealing gems that
should help dispel some illusions, if only international leaders and experts are
willing to listen.
On the infamous Houla Massacre
When asked directly
about the killing of more than 100 civilians in the Syrian village of Houla in
May, he blamed it on gangs who “came in hundreds from outside the city.”
This is the
second time Assad has had a chance to tell us about the identity of the
victims. But neither in his speech that took place after the massacre, nor in
this interview did Assad claim that the victims of Houla were Alawites or recent
converts to Shi’ism. As such, we must in all fairness dismiss such claims as
blatantly false and stand by the initial reports and eyewitness accounts,
supported by videos and satellite photography, that put the blame clearly on
pro-Assad militias. The Massacre of Houla came as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign
aimed at Sunni inhabitants in key locations that Assad and his supporters want
to transform into an Alawite majority enclave as part of their Plan B in
dealing with the current situation.
Reform vs. Freedom
Assad said a “majority
of the people ask for reforms, political reforms (but) not freedom.”
This particular
pearl of wisdom should be quoted in each standard textbook on political science,
political philosophy and psychology. This is exactly the kind of wisdom for
which Assad should be remembered for eternity. That’s the sum total of his
heritage.
On Stepping Down
He stressed that he
still had the overall support of Syria’s people, firmly ruling out
stepping down. “The president shouldn’t run away from challenge and we
have a national challenge now in Syria,” he said.
There it
is then: Assad has no plans to step down voluntarily, and the Russians want him
to be part of the political transition process. What does that mean really? Political
solution without military muscle will not be possible in Syria. It’s as simple
and plain as that.
On dialogue
While he said he was
ready for political dialogue with the opposition, Assad left no doubt that he
would fight those his government perceives as terrorists. “But as long as you
have terrorism and as long as the dialogue didn’t work, you have to fight the
terrorism. You cannot keep just making dialogue while they are killing your
people and your army,” he said.
The ethnic cleansing of
Syria has already begun, warns Dall'Oglio. But he insists that it is a project
of the Assad government, not an objective of the Sunni-led guerrilla forces
that have inspired such misgivings among Christians and other Syrian
minorities, including Assad's Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam.
"The regime is
already acting in the logic of division of the country," says Dall'Oglio,
citing rumors of contingency plans for an Alawite-run rump state carved from
the Mediterranean shore to the Orontes River. "What do you do with most of
the Sunni population? They have started to kill them, massively."
Another
profile of Father Paolo: Italian
priest created an interfaith refuge in Syria
BUSINESS INSIDER: HACKED
STRATFOR EMAILS
The emails were
published back in March, 2012, but their subject is still pretty much relevant.
"After a couple
hours of talking, they said without saying that SOF teams (presumably from US,
UK, France, Jordan, Turkey) are already on the ground focused on recce [i.e.
reconnaissance] missions and training opposition forces... They have been told
to prepare contingencies and be ready to act within 2-3 months, but they still
stress that this is all being done as contingency planning, not as a move
toward escalation." They then discuss the option of an air campaign in
Syria and what its objectives would be, saying the situation "makes Libya
look like a piece of cake" because of the geography and Syria's robust air
defenses. "The main base they would use is Cyprus, hands down. Brits and
French would fly out of there. They kept stressing how much is stored at Cyprus
and how much recce comes out of there... There still seems to be a lot of
confusion over what a military intervention involving an air campaign would be
designed to achieve."
"He says there are
in Syria about 3,000 IRGC men and 2,000 HZ fighters, in addition to 300 Amal
Movement men [i.e. Lebanese Resistance Detachments] and 200 [Syrian National
Socialist Party] militiamen. The IRGC men are leading the pro-regime armed
gangs. Syrian soldiers who refuse to open fire on protesters are killed by the
Iranians and pro-Syrian Lebanese allies. The Iranians and Lebanese usually
stand behind Syrian troops and kill Syrian soldiers immediately if they refuse
to open fire. The 17 Syrian troops dumped in the Orontes River in Hama were
killed by HZ men."
The former director of
the security firm Blackwater aided the Libyan opposition and was subsequently
sent to contact Syrian rebels in Turkey at the request of a U.S. Government
committee, according to published Stratfor emails and reported by Al-Akhbar
English.
Video Highlights
This leaked
video from a defector shows the aftermath of an attack that he filmed before
defecting. It was an attack by a local resistance unit on a pro-Assad military facility
that left 48 loyalists dead. The attack is said to have taken place on June 28
in Iz Ma’areen Village in Hama Province http://youtu.be/5qwhIpUeT2o
Local
resistance groups in the town of Anadan, Aleppo Province, take possession
of a cannon that was used by pro-Assad militias in pounding their town http://youtu.be/embeLcpC4Os
In Hreitan,
Aleppo Province, an Islamic local resistance group clash with invading pro-Assad
columns http://youtu.be/PWUwt5Yg85Y
In Deir
Jammal, Aleppo Province, tanks http://youtu.be/Tc5j-CVdmEc
and helicopter gunships http://youtu.be/ASaLyYYtpUI
take part in the pounding.
Helicopter
gunships take part in pounding Eizaz, Aleppo Province http://youtu.be/Kju-Q5s4ZOQ
The sounds
of nighttime clashes in Abassid Square in downtown Damascus City http://youtu.be/9v5GCPNBdvs
The pounding
of Homs City continues http://youtu.be/Oy2l10Zodjw
, http://youtu.be/HxTwXPl6DT8 So does
the pounding of Houla http://youtu.be/TYTzchb4iAY
and Talbisseh http://youtu.be/yc1nWGLvteY
the pounding was aimed at stopping this funeral for a local martyr http://youtu.be/fCrDajbo2NQ
In Daraa, the
pounding of Maaraba by helicopter gunships continue http://youtu.be/_IgUp4s0MX0 , http://youtu.be/_IgUp4s0MX0
Different
neighborhoods and suburbs in Daraa City also comes under pounding,
leaving many houses on fire http://youtu.be/6l4_EdmKz-s
The Damascene
suburb of Madaya comes under pounding http://youtu.be/eCxIa5CRTsY , http://youtu.be/2ZkKACaVv5c , http://youtu.be/BQN0PQnRma0
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