Something is definitely looming in Syria, but it’s not
end-game. It’s more like the end of Round One.
Thursday July 19, 2012
Today’s Death toll: 217. The Breakdown:
70 in Deir Ezzor (Albou Kamal, Jbeileh, Deir Ezor City), 40 in Damascus Suburbs
(Sit Zeinab, Eltal, Harasta, Arbeen, Zabadani, Madaya, Diyabiyeh), 15 in
Damascus City, 33 in Idlib (most in Saraqib), 21 in Homs, 16 in Hama, 14 in
Daraa, 7 in Aleppo and 1 in Hassakeh.
Local activists report that
“intense clashes” between the Jordanian and Syrian armies have taken place at
the border checkpoint of Nasseeb. No independent confirmation can be provided
at this stage.
Several Damascene suburbs
and neighborhoods have reportedly come under the complete control of FSA units
and local political resistance.
Kurdish activists from
across the country are reporting that all Kurdish-majority towns have been
liberated or are in the process of liberation. The move was not as violent, as
regime’s presence has been kept at a minimal level over the last few months in
order to avoid antagonizing the local population opening another front in its
showdown with the people.
News
Syrian
tyrant’s Brit-born wife Asma al-Assad ‘flees to Russia’ According to Ria Novosti “Russia's
Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the rumors when contacted by RIA
Novosti.”
Op-Eds & Special
Reports
Is
Syria Facing a Yugoslavia-Style Breakup? Even
if the regime loses its grip on growing swaths of territory, the civil war's
sectarian dimension could see it opt to retreat into enclaves controlled by its
base of Alawite, Christian and non-Sunni support
Fouad
Ajami: Syria's War Hits the House Of Assad Bashar
al-Assad has been sly: He made sure that the Alawites, as a community, were
implicated in the recent massacres that have poisoned the well between these
two communities. Alawite villagers were unleashed on their neighbors. They
killed at close range. The survivors knew the killers, they had gone to school
with them. The fiction that this was regime violence was shredded in the recent
horrific massacres. There was method in the cruelty, and this will make itself
felt in the phase to come: The Alawite-based regime was rounding out the
borders of an Alawite homeland.
On the Chemical
Front
Fears
grow Syria will use chemical weapons stockpile “Bashar al-Assad is highly
likely to deploy chemical weapons as he faces an unprecedented threat to his
rule, security sources warned on Thursday night.”
At this stage,
and considering the recent leaks from the State Department that Assad has
indeed moved some of his WMDs stockpiles from Damascus to central Syria, and
considering the situation in central Syria and the emerging pattern of ethnic
cleansing there orchestrated by Assad and his militias, we need to change the
nature of the conversation in policymaking circles in Washington from what can
or should be done in case Assad used WMDs, to what can and should be done
to preempt this very possibility. Use of chemical weapons by Assad will
not come as a surprise. This will not be another Halabja in this sense. We can
already see the chain of events paving the way to this eventuality. For this,
doing nothing is tantamount to becoming a culprit.
The Assassinations
This video claims to show the building where the National Security
Office is headquartered after the explosion that claimed the lives of
Shawkat, Turkmani and Rajhah took place. We only see white smoke coming out
from the building, and we hear the voice of a spokesman reading a prepared
statement explaining that the attack took place in revenge for the massacres
perpetrated by the regime, encouraging more defections and telling members of
the international community that they are unreliable and that the
revolutionaries no longer expect anything from them. http://youtu.be/qZhTPQB2cmM
The Ominous Message
By way of
preemption, and considering that pro-Assad militias will now be unleashed on
the public, Syrian TV issued this dire warning:
(Reuters) - Syrian state
television warned citizens on Thursday that gunmen were planning to attack
people in the capital using military uniforms as disguises.
Several neighborhoods in
Damascus have been rocked over the past five days by fierce clashes between
security forces and rebels fighting to topple President Bashar al-Assad.
Syria TV said uniformed men in
those districts may not actually be from the armed forces.
"Armed men in Tadamon,
Midan, Qaa and Nahr Aisha (neighborhoods) are wearing military uniforms with
the insignia of the Republican Guard. This confirms they are planning to commit
crimes and attack people, exploiting the trust of citizens in our courageous
armed forces," Syria's official channel said in a message flashed across
the screen.
The Hidden Message: massacres will be committed in Damascus and
all are fair targets.
Moving Towards An Alawistan?
University of
Oklahoma Syria specialist Joshua Landis finds the Alawite-state scenario
unconvincing. “Once the regime loses Damascus, it’s finished,” he says. “The
Alawite mountains are not a sufficient basis for a nation-state. It has no
separate economy of its own, and the regime hasn’t planned for this. Such an
entity wouldn’t have an external backer — Iran wouldn’t be in any position to
provide the necessary support. Once the Sunnis own the capital and the income
from the oil fields, they’d make short work of any remaining Alawite
resistance.” (The
Time)
There are three major problems with this analysis: first, it fails to
provide an adequate explanation of existing patterns of ethnic cleansing; second,
it fails to see a potential role for Russia in this matter, even though Russia
has prepped up such enclaves before and has made it clear so far that they
don’t have any plans for giving up on Assad.
But, more importantly, the above analysis insists on examining things
from the rational perspective of what is or is not viable. Assad and his clique
never looked at things from this perspective, a perspective that is bound to remain alien to them until
they are 6 feet under. Simple spite and a nihilistic sense of machismo are
often the sole motivations involved.
Joshua Landis, and other former advocates of engagement with Assad seem,
to date, incapable of reconsidering their analytical methodology when it comes
to the behavior of Assad & Co., where motivations are consistently more
personal and guttural than rational.
Moreover, and as the GlobalPost
reported recently: “Rumors had begun circulating among Allawites of oil and gas
wealth along the coastline.” In other words, in addition to the ongoing military
campaign, there is an parallel propaganda campaign taking place as well meant to
make the prospect of an Alwite State more alluring to member of the Alawite
community and other minority communities in Syria.
However, Joshua is right in noting that:
Once the regime
departs the capital, it essentially vacates the structure of power it had
established, Landis argues. And that raises the danger of even more vicious
fighting ahead, spearheaded by the Shabiha units of pro-regime thugs often led
by men no older than 21.
Indeed, where so many focus in their discussion solely on possible
retributions against the Alawites once regime falls, it’s the behavior of the
pro-Assad militias that might prove more problematic, not only in Damascus, but
also in coastal towns where Sunnis still make up 40% of the population and
living currently under siege in various villages and neighborhoods besieged by
Alawites checkpoints. If Assad truly wants to create his majority Alawite
enclave, the ethnic cleansing of the coast should begin soon.
What the US should do?
I second this advice
by Andrew Tabler, but, after today’s double veto, it should be clear to all
that the U.S. has to move outside the purview of the UN to get anything done in
regard to Syria, that is, if the U.S. wants to do anything at this stage.
The time to act is
now, before disaster strikes. By leading an effort at the U.N. Security Council
to warn the Syrian regime about the dire consequences of using its chemical
weapons stockpile, and raising the possibility of a military response in the
event that effort fails, Washington will be communicating to Assad that he
would be sealing his fate if he crosses this last remaining red line.
Video Highlights
Rallies
continue to take place across the country despite the inherent dangers, while towns
and suburbs across the country continue to be pounded and shelled by tanks,
heavy artillery and helicopter gunships. Below are just a few highlights of
what has become a very complex and chaotic scene.
A unit of the FSA takes control of Bab Al-Hawa, one of the
official checkpoints on the Turkish-Syrian border http://youtu.be/B-KaCX9VGGE Fighters
remove posters of Assad http://youtu.be/9EFjmUmGZ6o
The rejoicing http://youtu.be/RFE8-QBElCY
, http://youtu.be/0ScgRhRPrwU , http://youtu.be/2HLmvPUJLMU Removing
Assad’s posters http://youtu.be/YXIA2p9LDFE
, http://youtu.be/AKtDKpFFtKI , http://youtu.be/JiMwxtT6Ic8
These families are leaving Damascus City to Idlib http://youtu.be/awFhBrx9u6E
Damascus City
Yarmouk: FSA fighters take control of the local police station http://youtu.be/ULO_nKJ31qw , http://youtu.be/TgiRb82aub4 , http://youtu.be/ZS1IFyIozDg Victim of a
sniper attack http://youtu.be/0FX4lNsL5cM
Clashes take place at night http://youtu.be/kIuWIVy-yYw
Impact of impounding http://youtu.be/TXdyU0lreZc
A hasta burial for some of yesterday’s victims in Sit Zainab http://youtu.be/sndbua4CnUw
The pounding of Midan http://youtu.be/2RyHNsc_ecU
Treating the wounded http://youtu.be/AR8rtHpWFmY
, http://youtu.be/TnymdT46gLE
Thick black smoke rises over Qaboun http://youtu.be/_p5CqkLREgo As pounding
by helicopter gunships continues http://youtu.be/ESnb8bqEq_I
More smoke rises over Tadamon and Kafar Sousseh http://youtu.be/hTQhvhD4VNQ
Shop-owners in the Old Hamidiyeh market observe a strike http://youtu.be/82wym59EZFo
Tanks patrol the neighborhood of Al-Qadam http://youtu.be/oLHFsID2raA
Huge fire on top of mount Qasayoun which activists say is the
result of destroying a missile base there by local resistance http://youtu.be/viIJ_CeknBA , http://youtu.be/xLE7r7cWfoY
Impact of shelling on Tadamon http://youtu.be/yoOdZYQIUqA Midan
http://youtu.be/YTQGG3g50JE , http://youtu.be/eweL5x-VwQg Dahadeel
http://youtu.be/Weu6Jr03-BY
Clashes take place in Mazzeh http://youtu.be/5bxZ3dzujE8 In nearby Kafar
Sousseh, Assad’s snipers take up positions http://youtu.be/W7BkilbODxI
Damascus Suburbs
Activists document the use of cluster bombs in the pounding of the
towns of Madaya and Zabadani in Damascus Suburbs http://youtu.be/A28Air3nhMI
The pounding of Zabadani was quite intense today http://youtu.be/cI1HMHfRYQQ , http://youtu.be/jtaN6VEfid4 , http://youtu.be/QBWGHp6owPw , http://youtu.be/16Rpo0HZG6I , http://youtu.be/ffRYcBU_4ME But nearer
to the town, local resistance destroy a checkpoint manned by pro-Assad militias
http://youtu.be/_eZOY4qhi-U
Local resistance in the suburb of Eltal mange to take control of
the local political security branch hoisting the independence flagon top http://youtu.be/8helc5YMS0o Locals
celebrate the development http://youtu.be/qo89kX1OdaI
Elsewhere in town, the resistance destroys a tank http://youtu.be/-TQSHG99S7Y But the
suburb soon came under shelling from helicopter gunships http://youtu.be/ADW8HyFsL4g , http://youtu.be/fVK27iuUlFI , http://youtu.be/FErUkzO2Cno
The various towns making up Eastern Ghoutah came under heavy
pounding from helicopter gunships: Arbeen http://youtu.be/5x7xaSKFq6I Some of the
martyrs http://youtu.be/iW15l2p8qUM Smoke
rises over Madeera http://youtu.be/dY-iCvWrLzY
and over Zamalka http://youtu.be/PAs3HDCC7Zw
, http://youtu.be/IfRNnXqjKIU and
over Hamouriyeh http://youtu.be/3q5NVTd-k9Y
After pounding from this helicopter http://youtu.be/5Z1rVYDBI1Y
and this one http://youtu.be/7evJZUDVqpQ
Clashes in Kafar Batna http://youtu.be/M5F8VBYUjug
The massacre of Madeera http://youtu.be/ts3JgoZhoOo
, http://youtu.be/42jO2rUSAWE The
massacre of Sbeineh http://youtu.be/aTbiU9GnMck
To the south, the suburb of Kisweh comes under heavy automatic
gunfire http://youtu.be/DLPEuZIojMM
Idlib
Treated the wounded in Saraqib http://youtu.be/GIaEhjJ29Ws , http://youtu.be/uRqu4KF4lJ0 , http://youtu.be/jXosrTVtR0o
In Kafar Takhreem, a pro-Assad soldier comes under fire http://youtu.be/H1ZoYl47uao
Homs
Al-Hosn is pounded http://youtu.be/2vBEyeMNqz4
Talbisseh is pounded http://youtu.be/AsV7pN-Z71Y
Rastan http://youtu.be/R5NzAa9GlIw
, http://youtu.be/F0aAjZJPR-o Old
Homs is pounded http://youtu.be/OxgtJOkvrS4
, http://youtu.be/hQgOl2uShlA , http://youtu.be/jS99DONVRmc , http://youtu.be/WoNe4qn78Hs , http://youtu.be/2wdA0jf4BA4
Aleppo
The pounding of Kafar Nouran http://youtu.be/Ni2Cb1cRu2U the pounding
of Atareb http://youtu.be/y37YnsBRveM
Inhabitants of the Kurdish-Majority town of Kobani take control
of a local security station and burn Assad’s posters http://youtu.be/iQuUGbKjG28 Soon
afterwards, all of Kobani’s official buildings fell to the local activists.
Other Kurdish-majority towns throughout Syria soon followed suit.
Local resistance “liberate” the town Eizaz http://youtu.be/USw6VC3baVQ , http://youtu.be/RgIBwB55jZQ , http://youtu.be/1BNDpoqVuKo Forcing Assad
forces to retreat http://youtu.be/dAYjtN6RBsg
Daraa
Tafas: local resistance take out a tank http://youtu.be/TIN1a0as8jo
The pounding of Daraa City continues http://youtu.be/9s11hAayvVA
The pounding of Maarba http://youtu.be/s-TCbQ0CS6Y
Lattakia
More fires in Jabal Al-Akrad http://youtu.be/A-JI-QMnkXI
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