Use of cluster bombs by Assad falls short of violating the
Obama Redline. As such, the development might at best generate a condemnation,
but no action should be expected.
Sunday October
14, 2012
Today’s
Death toll: 220. The Breakdown: death toll includes 8 children
and 3 women. 140 martyrs fell in Damascus and suburbs (including 100 found in local
hospital between Daraya and Moadamia), 21 in Idlib, 12 in Aleppo, 12 in
Lattakia, 12 in Deir Ezzor, 11 in Homs, 9 in Daraa, 9 in Tartous, and 2 in Hama
(LCC).
News
Special
Reports
Turkey and Syria share a meandering
border over 500 miles long, where in places the villages seem to merge,
families share their names and pedigrees, if not their passports, and twisted
olive trees roll out over the hillsides. Here, amid the quiet rhythms of rural
life, people are witnessing what for 19 months had been one of the gravest
concerns about the war next door: that it would spill over the border, draw in
neighboring nations and, in a flash, become a regional conflagration. War, it
becomes clearer by the day, is inching closer to home.
President Bashar Assad’s embattled
regime is believed to have one of the largest chemical weapons stockpiles in
the world. Fears have risen that a cornered Assad might use them or that they
could fall into the hands of extremists, whether the Lebanese Hezbollah
militia, an Assad ally, or al-Qaida-inspired militants among the rebels.
What are we worried about? That Syria
will become a state sponsor of terrorism? That it will be hostile to the US and
to Israel? That it will be a repressive dictatorship that jails and murders
thousands of people? That it will be an ally of Iran, our principal enemy in
the region? Syria is already all of those things.
Ammar Abdulhamid & Khawla
Yusuf: The
Shredded Tapestry: The State of Syria Today
Alawite Defections
In regarding to high
level defections among Alawites, it should be noted that Col. Zubaidah
Almiqi is not the highest ranking Alawite officer to defect. We know there are
more. But Col. Almiqi seem to have been selected to come out in the open
because she is one of the few Alawites who hail from the Golan Heights, an area
far from the Alawite heartland along the Syrian coast. Being surrounded by
rebel bases her family might be safe from loyalist retributions. As we have seen
from the situation in Qardaha, dissention in the ranks will be followed by immediate
clashes and retributions, as such, it requires careful management. In tactical
terms, Alawites who grew disillusioned cannot just “dissent,” they have to plan
an uprising and stick with it. This requires careful planning, something that
might already be taking place.
Chemical Obama
If the Obama Administration were seriously concerned over the issue of Syrian
WMDs falling in the wrong hand, they had a strange way of showing it. Indeed
one would have expected a more proactive attitude towards managing the entire
situation, including working closely with the opposition to form a transitional
government and agreeing on a transitional plan, working closely with the rebels
to establish a clear command structure and supervising all efforts meant at arming
and training the rebels. This approach would have undercut any attempt at building
radical networks by Jihadists in Syria. Instead, the Obama Administration remained
aloof, and failed to lead on any front, even from behind. American officials
and experts were missing in action throughout the crisis, other western
officials followed their lead. This left the doors wide open for a variety of regional
actors to approach the conflict on the basis of their own particularistic
priorities and in the manner to which they were accustomed: building up radical
Islamist networks on the ground (the main backers here are Saudi and Qatar, but
always with Turkish support) and using Islamists in exile to lead all work on
political transition abroad (Turkey’s work with the Muslim Brotherhood, and Gulf
support going to Salafist groups and figures).
Consequently, fear of WMDs falling into the wrong hand are now more justified
than they have ever been before, but, at this late stage, there may not be a
way for the U.S. to secure the WMDs’ without employing a foot-on-the-ground
approach. But if such an approach is used without rebel support and without
supporting rebels in their fight against Assad, than any U.S. involvement in
this regard could have negative repercussion on the situation and will further
radicalize sentiments.
The Obama Administration has recently sent troops to Jordan reportedly as
part of a potential future operations meant to secure Syria’s WMDs. But it is
not clear that such an operation would entail considering the fact that WMDs locations
are scattered throughout the country, and seeing that contact with rebel groups
remain too sporadic to allow for efficient coordination of efforts. Little can
be achieved without active support from rebels, but rebels are unlikely to help
the Administration achieve its objectives, if the Administration is not willing
to help them achieve theirs.
By doing nothing, the Obama Administration has, in fact, done plenty to
make its own worst scenario in Syria come true, and we all have to live with the
consequences of its folly.
Video Highlights
In Idlib and Aleppo rebels bring down two more MIGs: Idlib http://youtu.be/xta_ojZbgsY
More towns and villages are being liberated by rebels in Aleppo
and Idlib: Heesh (Idlib) http://youtu.be/6YTdUePAQDA
Jabhat Al-Nusrah takes part in liberating a missile base in
Aleppo Province http://youtu.be/vGJ50S-9ogE
, http://youtu.be/3xjMXSlCvCc
Leaked video shows pro-Assad militias “arresting” a local activist http://youtu.be/57XVLLd78UU Another
shows a cold-blooded summary execution http://youtu.be/uuUcuQ2wL3g
The historic Omayad Mosque in Aleppo City was set on fire as
result of shelling by pro-Assad militias. The mosque was used at first as a
base by pro-Assad militias who wrote offensive graffiti on its walls, leading
to a push by local rebel unit to liberate it, which, in is turn, encouraged
pro-Assad militias to shell it. Like
every choice made by rebels and activists since the beginning of this revolution;
it always boils down to a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” type
situation http://youtu.be/F9m1Xb4pEAU
In this TV interview with a Gulf-based channel, the Salafist Scholar
Adnan Arour, addresses the issues of foreign fighters and the nature of the
desired state in Syria: he says that rebels do not need foreign fighters coming
to fight and die on their land, because they have enough men. Rebels needs
money, not men, he says and insists that this is the right way for interpreting
Sharia law in this regard. He also says that the state that rebels want to establish
and that he supports is a state that respects the right of all for dignity,
freedom and justice, not an Islamic state. He adopts this point of view, he
says, not because he does not believe in an Islamic state, but because he
believes that it cannot be established by force but by admonishment http://youtu.be/3w5LPysbUSc. This is a
marked diversion from his earlier stands: at the beginning of the revolution,
Shaikh Arour even issued a fatwa against challenging the ruling regime, but, he
quickly reversed his position, lent support to the revolution and called for
retribution against the Alawites. He, then, reversed that position as well. Over
the last few months, Shaikh Arour seems
to be trying to become a more acceptable figure to a larger swath of Syria’s
Sunni population by carefully calibrating his positions and moderating his
views. His strategy seems to be working: he has more followers in Syria now than
he had ever enjoyed. His ability to bring material support to the rebels has
boosted his popularity as well. Indeed, Arour’s recent venture into the
liberated areas in the north was fruitful and resulted in the establishment of
the Union of Military Revolutionary Council. Though the Union is not as large as
its other Islamist rivals: the Islamic Front for the Liberation of Syria, the Tawhid
Brigades, the Jabhat Al-Nusrah (the Syrian incarnation of Al-Qaeda) or its pragmatist
rivals, especially the Syria martyrs Brigades, much could change in the days
and weeks ahead as facts on the grounds remain in flux.
A bomb in the plush Mazzeh Autostrad Neighborhood targets
In-House, a Starbucks-type coffeehouse. The explosion took place at dawn,
making clear that the intention was to spread fear rather than produce casualties
http://youtu.be/HEHnibCOU6Y
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