The National Coalition needs to learn from the mistakes of
its predecessor, the Syrian National Council. It needs to learn that getting
recognition, both domestic and international, is hinged on its ability to be efficient
in its management of relations with rebel groups, in-country activists and
refugees. Its leaders should arrange visits to refugee camps soon, as well as meetings
with top defectors, rebels and activists. They should also realize that a
government of technocrats should put skill and experience over political ideology
and communal background.
Wednesday
November 14, 2012
Today’s
Death Toll: 100.
The Breakdown: Toll includes 5 children and 3 women: 37 in Damascus
and Suburbs, 16 in Aleppo, 14 in Deir Ezzor, 12 in Idlib, 7 in Daraa, 5 in Homs,
4 in Hama, 3 in Hassakeh, 1 in Lattakia, and 1 in Quneitra (LCC).
News
Special
Reports
When Syria's revolt began as a
peaceful protest movement, many participants said it was a moment when hidden
views were shared honestly for the first time. They described it as a time that
brought fellow Syrians together. But Assad's crackdown has transformed their
movement into a bloody armed revolt and the conflict, in which more than 32,000
people have died, is tearing the country apart, dividing friends and families
and spinning a web of secrets between neighbors.
Of some 22,000 schools across Syria,
more than 2,000 have been damaged or destroyed. Over 800 have been turned into
makeshift shelters for refugee families, according to UNICEF. The 2012-13
school year kicked off with a troubled start, though officials said more than
five million children joined classes this year. In rebel-held towns besieged
and bombed for months, small, informal classes were set up in alleyways to
avoid children having to walk very far, says Hussein, an opposition activist in
Qusayr, in the central province of Homs. Compounding their difficulties, some
displaced children are teased in Damascus by their peers because of their
accents, says child psychologist Azza Nasser.
Prime Minister David Cameron will
chair a meeting of the National Security Council on Thursday morning which will
consider the military, humanitarian and diplomatic options for dealing with the
conflict in Syria and the growing refugee crisis on its borders… The prime
minister hopes to find a fresh approach which he can persuade US President
Barack Obama to pursue with him so that they are not seen to stand aside as
thousands die - to repeat what some inside government call "a Kosovo
situation".
The street warfare isn’t winning the
rebels any more friends. The urbane Aleppans have never really warmed to the
opposition fighers, most of whom come from religiously conservative Sunni
Muslim small-towns–and there is growing concern that the rebels are turning
more sectarian. The rebels know they’re not really welcome.
A growing chorus of voices, including
Zalmay Khalilzad, a former US envoy to the UN, and former State Department
policy planner Anne-Marie Slaughter, has called on the administration to
provide not only nonlethal technical assistance, but to arm Syria’s
pro-democratic opposition in order to counter extremists.
The Syrian president's fans are
comparing him with the hero of America's Civil War. Here's why they're wrong.
A moderate Muslim preacher who
suffered as a freedom fighter in Syria has been chosen as opposition leader to
Assad. Now, Moaz al-Khatib must unite a people torn by civil war and religion.
The new leader of Syria's opposition
has a history of statements that are anti-Semitic, outrageous, and sometimes
downright bizarre. (My Comment: my rebuttal of the views expressed here
can be read in my previous post).
Ammar Abdulhamid & Khawla
Yusuf: The
Shredded Tapestry: The State of Syria Today
President Obama’s recent remarks on Syria divulge a more proactive
approach towards managing the ongoing conflict there than previously exhibited.
Still, the President obviously maintains the same reluctance towards military intervention,
even in the form of providing greater support to the opposition beyond nonlethal
and humanitarian aid. Still, the statements mark a step in the right direction.
The newly formed National Coalition can improve its chances of making this new policy
even more open by proceeding with the formation of a technocratic leaning transitional
government and an effective military council, as well as by providing a more
inclusive vision for Syria’s future.
Meanwhile, and while the political processes continue to unfold,
developments on the ground are still very much influx. Rebels looked set to
liberate the north just a few days ago, but today, they have suffered several
reversals, with the town of Khan Shaikhoon falling back to the regime and a major
segment of the city of Idlib. The battle and the war are not over yet. Nothing can
be taking for granted. The regime continues to receive regular shipment of weapons
and supplies from Russia and Iran, but support to rebels’ continues to be
spotty and irregular, which is not conducive to a situation where momentum can
be maintained.
The President’s Remarks:
Q. Mr. President, the Assad regime is engaged in a
brutal crackdown on its people. France
has recognized the opposition coalition.
What would it take for the United States to do the same? And is there any point at which the United
States would consider arming the rebels?
THE PRESIDENT:
I was one of the first leaders I think around the world to say Assad had
to go, in response to the incredible brutality that his government displayed in
the face of what were initially peaceful protests.
Obviously, the situation in Syria has
deteriorated since then. We have been
extensively engaged with the international community as well as regional powers
to help the opposition. We have
committed to hundreds of millions of dollars of humanitarian aid to help folks
both inside of Syria and outside of Syria.
We are constantly consulting with the opposition on how they can get
organized so that they’re not splintered and divided in the face of the
onslaught from the Assad regime.
We are in very
close contact with countries like Turkey and Jordan that immediately border
Syria and have an impact -- and obviously Israel, which is having already grave
concerns, as we do, about, for example, movements of chemical weapons that
might occur in such a chaotic atmosphere and that could have an impact not just
within Syria, but on the region as a whole.
I’m encouraged to see that the Syrian
opposition created an umbrella group that may have more cohesion than they’ve
had in the past. We’re going to be
talking to them. My envoys are going to
be traveling to various meetings that are going to be taking place with the
international community and the opposition.
We consider them a legitimate
representative of the aspirations of the Syrian people. We’re not yet prepared to recognize them as
some sort of government in exile, but we do think that it is a broad-based
representative group. One of the
questions that we’re going to continue to press is making sure that that
opposition is committed to a democratic Syria, an inclusive Syria, a moderate
Syria.
We have seen extremist elements insinuate
themselves into the opposition, and one of the things that we have to be on
guard about -- particularly when we start talking about arming opposition
figures -- is that we’re not indirectly putting arms in the hands of folks who
would do Americans harm, or do Israelis harm, or otherwise engage in actions
that are detrimental to our national security.
So we're constantly probing and working on
that issue. The more engaged we are, the
more we'll be in a position to make sure that we are encouraging the most
moderate, thoughtful elements of the opposition that are committed to
inclusion, observance of human rights, and working cooperatively with us over
the long term.
My take on Obama’s position can be found here:
On Wednesday, Obama
gave no sign though that despite his re-election there would be any major shift
yet in his Syria policy.
"The US has
been virtually missing in action on Syria so far, but their recent moves,
including the push for the formation of the coalition, indicates that they
might be ready to adopt a more proactive attitude," said pro-democracy
Syrian activist, Ammar Abdulhamid, a fellow at the Foundation for the Defense
of Democracies.
"The heavy
lifting, though, including arming rebels and perhaps pushing for a de facto
no-fly zone, might still be left to other countries at this stage," he
told AFP.
US analysts said
questions remained over the new coalition, highlighting for example that a
Kurdish body had still not joined.
The opposition now
needs to work on setting up a transitional government and some form of military
council, they said.
"What the
United States is looking for... is one military organization where all military
aid can be channeled, that in turn can be relied upon to distribute the money
among fighting groups inside the country, leaving out the jihadi groups,"
said Marina Ottaway, senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace.
"This is a
very admirable plan. I'm not sure that it can work," she told AFP, adding:
"The idea that somehow by centralizing the distribution of money the
jihadi groups will be cut off, I don't think it's realistic."
Abdulhamid agreed
that before the international community could start arming the rebels a
"mechanism for vetting groups and delivery channels need to be
agreed."
Max Boot has a more nuanced
take in Commentary Magazine:
President Obama and
the U.S. continue to lag behind in trying to influence events in another
important country, in spite of the major role played by American diplomats in
helping to organize the Syrian National Coalition. That is a major problem,
because there is only so much France—or other states such as Qatar and Turkey,
which are eager to topple Bashar Assad—can do.
Only the U.S. can
organize a coalition to impose a no-fly zone and thus hasten the end of the
barbarous Assad regime. If we fail to act, the humanitarian and strategic costs
of the war will continue to grow—as witness recent incidents of Syrian forces
directing fire near to, and sometimes over, the borders with Israel and Turkey.
Writing in The Christian Science Monitor, Bilal Saab, executive
director and head of research and public affairs of the Institute for Near East
and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA), argues
that
Obama’s policy of
'staying the course' in Syria should be weighed against worsening strategic
realities in the country and region. Only a careful military program to help
the rebels, including arming and training them, can stem the growing costs of
US inaction.
For his part, Thomas Friedman advocates
a policy of convincing Russia to “fall on the grenade” and “midwife a transition
process in Syria. But that would be the equivalent of flipping Russia from herself,
which is even more out there than the idea of flipping Syria from Iran by
engaging Iran. Putin & Co. are more likely to midwife a process that will
take us back to Assad’s bosom, than away from Assad’s rule. The truth is
Syrians don’t need anyone to fall on his sword or grenade for them. Rebels simply
need support, and midwifing a transition process can still happen from a safe
distance, for now. Further delays will definitely change this calculus, and we
could indeed face a “Kosovo
Situation,” or worse, a regional meltdown brought about by an imploding/exploding
Syria, as Friedman himself has argued.
Video Highlights
Rebels in Aleppo City showcase advanced missiles they claim to have
recently confiscated from troops loyal to Assad, saying that they have been
asking for these missiles for a long time, but no one in the international
community was willing to provide with this type of weapons. Finally, Allah
stepped in to fill the gap http://youtu.be/JRe4wfNE0Fs
A new massacre in Diyabiyeh http://youtu.be/71Om1Y8xSTQ
, http://youtu.be/vInd0voEiJc Meanwhile,
clashes between rebels and loyalists in Eastern Ghoutah Region continues:
rebels destroyed a tank in Bouaydah http://youtu.be/7VIyETxNhzE
The indiscriminate pounding of Qaboun continues http://youtu.be/SSv_K785J94 MiGs continue
to take part in the pounding as well: Kafar Batna http://youtu.be/FcaK6-912Vo Helicopter
gunships continue to drop Thermobaric bombs on the region http://youtu.be/eSmOJJTTf28
In Deir Ezzor City, militias loyal to Assad regime keep targeting
mosques with their shelling http://youtu.be/DAA8AVUbXaE
Some neighborhoods in the city have been turned completely into rubble as is
the case in Jbeileh http://youtu.be/fYVHegSJxJI
Locals pull the bodies of the dead from under the rubble, following an
aerial raid on Alboukamal, Deir Ezzor Province http://youtu.be/wJxGBcvD2-I
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