A political solution is not meant to save Assad or his
regime, but to stabilize the country after their fall preventing a descent into
a prolonged communal strife. A political solution requires more than forming a
transitional government, it requires the adoption of a clear transitional
vision, something that remains missing.
Friday December
7, 2012
Today’s
Death Toll: 130, including 4 women and 4
children: 51 in Deir Ezzor (including 50 in Aljbaila neighborhood massacre), 43
in Damascus and suburbs, 9 in each of Aleppo and Daraa, 8 in Idlib, 6 in Hama,
2 in Homs and 1 martyr in each of Latakia and Hassaka. Points of Random Shelling: 237. Clashes: 149 (LCC).
News
Rebel
Groups in Syria Make Framework for Military The agreement, the product
of three days of intensive talks among more than 260 rebel commanders, was a
marked departure from previous attempts because it was built strictly around
commanders from inside Syria. Following the terms of the pact, the participants
elected a 30-member Supreme Military Council, which then selected the chief of
staff, Gen. Salim Idriss, by consensus.
Russia
Arms Syria With Powerful Ballistic Missiles Iskanders carry 1,500-pound
warhead at 1.3 miles per second.
France
funding Syrian rebels in new push to oust Assad Money delivered by
French government proxies across Turkish border has been used to buy weapons
and ammunition.
US
uses rumours of chemical weapons to underpin threat of action in Syria Syria's
ally Russia casts doubt on flurry of leaks from Pentagon and state department
that Assad is preparing sarin gas
Syrian
refugees 'turned back from Greek border by police' Asylum seekers
crossing from Turkey say they have been illegally deported by Greek police or
blocked from entering
Special
Reports
The end appears near for the Assad
regime in Syria. The opposition and world powers must do more to prevent the
kind of post-conflict revenge – mainly against Alawites – that could ricochet
in the Middle East.
What a pathetic policy we have
undertaken that consists largely, if not entirely, of rhetoric backed up by
little concrete action. Ford could not bring himself to give the body count,
but our lack of decisive action has had
a price – in tens of thousands of dead
Syrians, in Syrians who surely must be convinced we are worthless friends, and
in an ever-more emboldened Iranian regime, which sees how feckless we are.
The extent of the violence is both
exaggerated and understated by rumour or propaganda
The Lebanese Army attempted to quash
fighting in Tripoli on Friday—the seventh round of clashes since the Syrian
uprising began 20 months ago. Jamie Dettmer on whether Beirut can stop a civil
war within their own borders.
The second Obama Administration might
depart from its isolationism on the international scene because the events in
the Middle East are forcing it to do so. Prolonging the conflict in Syria would
not only lead to thousands more civilian deaths, but also to the growth of
extremist fundamentalist movements, to such an extent that they would regain a
foothold in various places, and not solely in Syria. This represents a threat
that could reach America and thrust the President to the forefront of the
confrontation he seeks to avoid.
Activists in Syria say government
forces have reinforced their positions in the suburbs of the capital, Damascus.
There have been clashes around the city in recent days. The opposition says it
is increasingly fearing a ground attack on rebel-held areas. The BBC's Middle
East Editor Jeremy Bowen is in Damascus where fighting has intensified in the
last week.
Western human rights analysts who have
argued for more robust action to protect civilians are rightfully raising new
concerns about the brutality of the situation in Syria. Specifically, revenge
violence and massive political execution may await al-Assad's supporters in
Damascus should the rebels triumph. Should this happen, this horrific conflict
will become even more bloodstained. Will the West just look on?
The precise dimensions of Syria’s
chemical weapons arsenal are not known, in part because it has never been
subjected to outside inspection. Experts say it is a formidable collection, but
the weapons date back almost 40 years — when Assad’s father, President Hafez
Assad, began accumulating them — and have not been modernized.
As the banner below shows, the week beginning this Friday will be dedicated
to rejecting any plans to send in peacekeepers to Syria. The reason? Peacekeepers,
according to the Arabic note below, are meant to separate combatants, thus
preventing the possibility of reaching a military resolution to the current conflict
with one side triumphing over the other, while ensuring the fragmentation and
division of the country.
Indeed, this is the prevailing thinking among rebels and opposition at
this stage: the regime needs to be toppled and the authority of the central state
needs to be reestablished over every inch of land by military means. No ethnic
enclaves will be tolerated, even if they remained tied to the state through the
adoption of a decentralized form of government such as a federation or a confederation.
In practical terms, this is a recipe for a prolonged civil war, irrespective
of what happens to Assad and Co. Alawites and Kurds, and perhaps Druzes and
Christians, will not likely to rebels storm into their traditional areas
without a fight. Once Assad loses his grip over Damascus, and irrespective of what
happens to him, the battle in Syria will no longer be one pitting freedom
fighters against an oppressive regime, but one pitting fighters from different
communal and regional backgrounds against each other. For if loyalist militias
are perceived, a perception justified by their actions, as an occupation force
in rebel communities, once they enter Alawite and Kurdish majority areas, rebels,
the overwhelming majority of whom are Sunni Arabs, will be perceived in the
same light, and will draw fierce resistance from local populations.
But since no country seems willing to offer peacekeepers anyway, what
is needed is a commitment from the rebels to refrain from storming into
minority regions, leaving the matter of their reintegration back into the state
in the hands of political forces.
This is indeed a good piece of analysis and one that both the Obama
Administration and the Syrian opposition, including moderate rebels, better
heed:
… can the Obama
administration isolate Jabhat al-Nusra? While some in the Syrian opposition
would welcome a U.S. decision to slap a terrorist designation on the group,
many will likely view this as another case of the U.S. government actually
acting in support of Assad -- demonizing an element of the insurgency while
simultaneously offering little assistance itself to topple the regime.
As a result,
designating Jabhat al-Nusra could backfire on the United States. In the short
term, it might galvanize more support for the group as Syrian rebels look to
spite the Obama administration for its lack of support. A terror designation
could also provide even more legitimacy for the organization amongst global
jihadi supporters, leading even more foreigners to join up with its cause.
In the long run,
however, marginalizing Jabhat al-Nusra and its ideology is a fight that the
United States -- and ordinary Syrians everywhere -- must win. Once the Assad
regime falls, the rebels' shared military goals will disappear, and it will be
the job of the Obama administration and mainstream rebel groups to isolate
extremist groups.
The outcome of this
future fight is inextricably related to the Obama administration's efforts to
help the rebels now. But without a swift end to the Assad regime and more
engagement with the opposition, the United States won't have much leverage to
shape Syria's future -- no matter what it decides to call Jabhat al-Nusra.
For his part, Peter Beinart, senior political writer for The Daily
beast, asserts that:
It is not too much
to ask that, in cooperation with the U.S., the Russians try to persuade Syria’s
military professionals to break with Assad in return for strong guarantees that
they will have an honorable role to play and that their families will be
protected in the wake of the regime’s fall. I never believed that the Assad
regime could be quickly or easily brought down. But I certainly do believe that
Bashar, if facing defeat, prefers guaranteed safe-passage into exile rather
than an ignoble death.
A “safe-passage” for Assad and “an honorable role” for his generals is
a formula that can only work when rebels become saints with a deep case of
amnesia. We talks about regional rights, minority protections, general amnesty,
national reconciliation, etc. But the architects of the genocide that has been
taken place cannot have any role to play in Syria’s future. A safe-passage for all
is the best that can be expected, and even that will prove a tough sale to
rebels and members of the political opposition.
Video Highlights
Hundreds of rallies like these took place throughout the country as is
customary on Fridays:
Maarabah, Daraa http://youtu.be/NNTb6rIMkmA
Elbab, Aleppo http://youtu.be/4u-Jef5XmIs
Kafar Zeiteh, Hama http://youtu.be/WxSysp-96Cg
Dhiyabiyeh, Damascus http://youtu.be/EI4ycZyLfC4
Kafrenbel, Idlib http://youtu.be/GD1MgKm6UgE
Sounds of explosions and gunfire in Qaboun Neighborhood,
Damascus City http://youtu.be/HuQSAZqBEsE
The pounding of Eastern Ghoutah continues: Harasta http://youtu.be/Qqy-99ipUZ4 The pounding
of the restive parts of Damascus Province also continues: Daraya http://youtu.be/7V8Z8M8rDEQ This leaked
video shows pro-Assad militias using tanks to pound Daraya neighborhoods
http://youtu.be/geb9dQoJ62Q
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