It seems that the gambit run by Russia and the U.S. calls
for beating down both sides of the ongoing conflict into accepting an arrangement
that neither of them can honor. Assad’s Camp cannot stop its crackdown, as this
will allow for a return of the nonviolent protest movement, a move that will
further delegitimize Assad while energizing the opposition and allowing for the
moderates to make a comeback. This is much more suicidal to the Assad Camp than
the crackdown which, due to its violent character, solicits radicalization and
extremism from the other side, thus creating the necessary conditions that can facilitate
the establishment of an Alawite enclave down the road. There is an innate
assumption that goes to the heart of the Geneva Accord that Al-Ibrahimi and the
Russians are pushing that is blatantly wrong, and assumes the kind of rational
thinking on part of Assad and his supporters that has always been missing. They
seem to think that the violence of the last two years has made Assad and his
supporters more open somehow to accepting a compromise solution. In truth, with
so much blood on their hands, the Assadists could not be any more radical and unwilling
to compromise than they are at the moment. As for rebels and opposition politicians,
and though, the Accord does in theory play in their favor as it will most
assuredly pave the way for Assad’s departure, none of them has the moral
gravitas and authority, not to mention, the necessary political skills, to make
that argument and bring the others on board. Also, opposition members realize that
without serious international support, their efforts to restructure the army
and security apparatuses as part of unity government will go nowhere. But how
can the opposition trust that the international community will come through for
them, when it has proven to be such a fickle ally for the last 21 months? As
such, the stalemate in Syria will continue, and while our fate may not have been
completely sealed, it continues to be stalled and staled.
Thursday December
27, 2012
Today’s
Death Toll: 197, including
9 children and 7 women: 103 in Damascus and suburbs including 50 in Brad on the
Daraa-Damascus Highway and 7 executed in Sidi Miqdad, 26 in Idlib including 4
in Ariha and 8 in Jisr Alshoghour, 22 in Aleppo including 4 in Sha’ar
neighborhood, 15 in Homs including 2 in Hama, 11 in Deir Ezzor including 7 in Mayadin,
11 in Hama, 4 in Daraa, 2 in Raqqa, 1 in Latakia killed under torture, 1 from Qunaitra
martyred in Damascus, and one from Hassaka also martyred in Damascus.
Points of Random Shelling: 287. Clashes: 152. In Hama, rebels downed
a fighter jet in Zain Al-Abidin Mountains and obstructed another in Mourek,
they also took control of the Thermal plants in the Christian-majority town of
Mhardeh which had been turned by regime loyalists into a military barrack. In
Aleppo, rebels took control of the Qantari Highway connecting Aleppo and
Hassakeh provinces. In Idlib, rebels liberated Al-Yaqubiya City completely and
destroyed the check point between Yaqubiya and Tal Zahab. In Damascus, the
airbase at Jabadin was liberated. In Daraa, rebels blocked several attempts by
regime loyalists to storm the town of Basr Al-Harir, destroying a number of
tanks and armored vehicles (LCCs)
Local activists
also loyalist militias seem to have forced rebels in the Suburb of Deir
Baalbah in Homs City to make a “tactical withdrawal,” allowing them to lay
a more firm siege of the restive neighborhoods in the city. This development could
pave the way for further intensification of the ongoing assault on Homs City
over the coming few weeks.
News
UN
envoy calls for interim Syria government Lakhdar Brahimi urges
"real change" in Damascus and for transitional leaders with full
power until elections are held.
Russia says time
running out for Syria peace deal Lavrov called for robust efforts to
hammer out a solution based on an agreement reached by world powers in Geneva
in June that called for a political transition. "Considering what is going
on in Syria, the chances of reaching such a solution ... are decreasing. But
there is still a chance and we must fight for it," Interfax quoted Lavrov
as saying in an interview. "The alternative to a peaceful solution is bloody
chaos. The longer it continues, the broader its scale and the worse (it will
be) for everyone."
West
Wary Over Syria's Chemical Stockpiles Joseph Holliday, former army
intelligence officer and now senior analyst at the Washington-based Institute
for the Study of War, said he could see President Assad using chemical weapons
against his people. “Clearly, the chances of that happening increase as the
Assad regime nears end game,” said Holliday.
“Right now our deterrence, our ‘red line’ is based really on the
psychology of Bashar al-Assad at this point -- that he won’t, he wouldn’t dare
to use them because that would mean committing suicide. But if at some point in the future, if the
rebel gains continue, and he’s backed into a corner, Bashar may decide that
he’s dead either way and the risks of miscalculation increase.”
New
jihadist group emerges in Syria Jund al Sham (Soldiers of the Levant),
a new Salafi jihadist group in Syria, announced its formation in the Syrian
city of Homs on Dec. 23, in a statement published on the group's Facebook page,
according to the SITE Intelligence Group... The group's emir is identified as
Abu Suleiman al Muhajir; his nom de guerre -- Muhajir, or 'immigrant' --
indicates he may be a foreigner. His real identity is unknown... The name 'Jund
al Sham' is not new to the Levant, which includes Syria, Lebanon, Jordan,
Israel, and the Palestinian Territories. Abu Musab al Zarqawi, the slain emir
of al Qaeda in Iraq, is said to have established a group called Jund al Sham in
the late 1990s. That group was made up of Jordanians, Syrians, and Lebanese,
and was trained in a camp in Herat. Zarqawi purportedly received seed money
from Osama bin Laden to establish the camp.
Israeli PM: Damascus
using arms banned by int'l conventions “Everyone today sees what is
happening in Syria,” the prime minister said. “The Syrian air force is bombing
the country’s citizens. They are killing and injuring hundreds each day. They
don’t desist from using any means, including weapons that are forbidden under
international treaties. Israel is following these developments in Syria, and
will do everything against that – or any – threat.”
Special
Reports
Healthcare crisis could mean life or
death for many desperate Syrians left without drugs or doctors, hospitals or
health centres
Since the outbreak of the uprising 21
months ago, there have been reports of antiquities being stolen from sites that
previously were well guarded. But now, according to a man involved in the
trade, it is becoming more systematic. “It’s very similar to Iraq,” he said. In
both countries, he explained, the looting became “more organised” as time went
by.
It has become evident that the armed
conflict in no shape or form is directed towards the interests of the Syrian
people. We cling to the hope that time will eventually bring forth a genuine
Syrian leadership which is able to save the revolution from the paralysis of
opportunism.
Looting, feuds and divided loyalties
threaten to destroy unity of fighters as war enters new phase… It wasn't the
government that killed the Syrian rebel commander Abu Jameel. It was the fight
for his loot. The motive for his murder lay in a great warehouse in Aleppo
which his unit had captured a week before. The building had been full of rolled
steel, which was seized by the fighters as spoils of war.
Now in its sixth month, the battle for
Aleppo has become the contest for Syria in a microcosm, exposing the weakness
of both sides, while highlighting anew the perils and costs of the country’s
bitter civil war. It has underlined the rebels’ difficulties in organizing a
coherent campaign; their paucity of infantry weapons heavier than machine guns;
and some of their fighters’ participation in the same human rights abuses for
which they condemn the government, including the summary killing of prisoners. It
has also left rebels vulnerable to allegations of corruption, including the
theft of much needed food and other aid.
Today, the administration is assisting
some rebel groups with communications but other responsibilities – the
provision of weapons for example – have been outsourced to Turkey, Qatar and
Saudi Arabia. Those three nations agree that Assad must go. But they want him
replaced by Islamists of some stripe, and so it is Islamist groups that they
have been backing with what amounts to Washington’s tacit approval. As a
result, Islamists have become dominant on the battlefield and within the newly
established Syrian National Coalition of Revolution and Opposition Forces
(SNCROF) that Obama recently said he will recognize. Meanwhile, lacking money
and weapons, moderate groups have been left in the lurch. Is it too late to
begin assisting them now? Once again the answer is both yes and no: Yes, it’s
too late to make them the driving force of the Syrian Revolution. But providing
support would be consistent with both America’s values and interests.
Semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan and
the central Iraqi government are on a collision course as the Kurds
increasingly side with the Syrian opposition and Baghdad stands by the Assad
regime.
A Sunni victory in Damascus will
necessarily mean a shift in the regional sectarian balance of power. Sunnis in
Iraq have also revived the idea of seeking autonomous arrangements like the
KRG, something they had violently supressed earlier. What is at stake is the
1916 Sykes-Picot Anglo-French-drawn regional boundaries. Having “lost” Syria,
Iran’s natural reaction will be to double down in Iraq, where it already has a
great deal of influence. It will want Iraq to provide strategic depth. It is
even conceivable that Tehran will create a Shi‘a analogue of the Brezhnev
Doctrine—once a government is Shi‘a, it stays Shi‘a, even if we have to send
expeditionary forces to keep it that way. Will the neighbors stand idly by if
this were to occur?
Turkey is now one of Assad’s fiercest
opponents. “The Turks want us to be more active against the regime in Syria,”
says Qubad Talabani, a prominent Kurdish politician. “We said, ‘Fine, come out
for Kurdish rights in Syria.’” Given Turkey’s troubled handling of the Kurdish
question within its own borders, that isn’t likely… “I won’t fight for Assad or
against Assad,” says Shanki, “but I will lay down my life for Kurdistan.” The
group of men surrounding him all murmur – and some shout – in agreement.
Gokhan Bacik, an associate professor
of political science and directer of the Middle East Strategic Research Center
at Zirve University in Gaziantep, Turkey, has been watching the struggles of
Syria’s opposition groups. He pays special attention to as many as 17 groups of
ethnic Kurds who look to Turkey or Iraqi Kurdistan for support and governing
models. Bacik says all of Syria’s moderate opposition groups attended the
meetings vowing to defeat President Bashar al-Assad, but beyond that many of
the activists have conflicting agendas. Bacik concludes that while Turkey
favors the Muslin Brotherhood (Ikhwan), some Kurds in Syria may prefer links to
Massoud Barzani’s Iraqi Kurdistan. Out
of these political choices, Bacik says a kind of federalism is likely to emerge
from a post-Assad Syria — not exactly a federal state, but something that
offers autonomy to at least two regions: the Kurdish northeast and an enclave
of Alawites along the western coast near the Mediterranean.
Groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra have
been allowed to establish not just a presence but also a foothold. If the
civilian councils and other governance structures emerging in the liberated
regions can be sufficiently funded, they can provide policing and relief
services to stabilize their communities. But without support from the United
States and other allies, well-funded extremist groups can continue to recruit
fighters from a population that would otherwise ignore them.
Note: an expert who reviewed the
videos from yesterday concluded that the bombs used were incendiary cluster
bombs not white phosphorous bombs. Assad might be saving his white phosphorous
for a more rainy day.
Video Highlights
The town of Mourek in Hama comes under shelling by cluster bombs
http://youtu.be/VHoIK8F8N4k , http://youtu.be/P35KB8xwlHc
The pounding of historic town of Crack de Chevaliers continues http://youtu.be/kMf3DAv6-GU As rebels
and loyalists clash around the city http://youtu.be/lj6NhSiVqXk
The pounding of Deir Baalbah Suburb intensifies as loyalist
forces have reportedly creep in http://youtu.be/9Gf_-8iNVJw
, http://youtu.be/SZCviTRLRJY and
residents sneak out http://youtu.be/ECFghwKb2Mg
The pounding of the rebel-held town of Salma in northern Latakia
by explosive barrels dropped from helicopter gunships intensifies http://youtu.be/Z6IZEUknKz0 , http://youtu.be/PjmS8vI0Qk4 Nearby Jabal
Al-Akrad was also targeted http://youtu.be/hRgVfg7omwk
In Aleppo, local rebels use confiscated cannons to pound the headquarters
of a loyalist police academy http://youtu.be/f70qfzlN1BU
, http://youtu.be/9gjAUEhMRZ0 , http://youtu.be/qe9mPINl4r0 Rebels then
move in to take control of the academy http://youtu.be/KI3Ge0inTvk
, http://youtu.be/xsnD849WOEk
Many children were wounded during the bombing of the town of Masraba
in Damascus http://youtu.be/3ZBmGAdbMwo
The nearby towns of Eastern Ghoutah were targeted as well: Saqba http://youtu.be/zRBfeV3VGmo Hamouriyeh
http://youtu.be/x7U9zTpDkcQ
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