Recognition and no weapons make Al-Nusra, and her terrorist
counterparts on Assad’s side (al-Jaish Al-Sha’bi and the Shabbiha), the only
game on the ground. Meanwhile, up in the air over Washington, Marrakesh, Cairo and
Istanbul, some irrelevant actors are engaged in idle banter.
Monday December
11, 2012
Today’s
Death Toll: 165 (not including the victims of
Aqrab massacre still being counted): 61 in Damascus and Suburbs (including 31
unidentified bodies in Damascus City and Ein Tarma), 39 in Aleppo, 22 in Hama, 16
in Idlib, 12 in Deir Ezzor, 9 in Homs, 5 in Daraa, and 1 in Lattakia. Points of Random Shelling: 236. Clashes: 124 Rebels destroyed 27 tanks
(mostly in Aleppo), liberated the Christian-majority town of Jadeeda in
Idlib Province, captured an ammunition car from Amouda Junction checkpoint near
Jisr Ashoughour, Idlib, and gained control of 2 checkpoints in the towns of Rankous
and Harasta in Damascus Suburbs (LCC).
News
U.S.
Recognizes Syria's Main Rebel Group Tuesday's move came as senior U.S.
officials warned that Syria's civil conflict threatens to degenerate into a
battle between al Qaeda-backed militias and Iranian militants and their
proxies, a risk that has created new urgency for the U.S. and allies to
accelerate a political transition.
Big
powers meet as Syria rebels move closer to Assad Major powers are set
to give Syria's opposition full political recognition on Wednesday but not the
weapons that rebel fighters need to counter President Bashar al-Assad's
superior firepower as they gain ground across the country.
Special
Reports
On the verge of formally recognizing a
rebel coalition as representing the Syrian people, the US designated the
al-Nusra Front as a terrorist organization that is an arm of Al Qaeda in Iraq.
The 21-month-old battle to bring down
President Bashar Assad has already forced some 3 million Syrians from their
homes, according to a new estimate, and cold, wet winter weather is making life
increasingly unbearable for the displaced.
The nearly two-year conflict in Syria
has taken tens of thousands of lives, destroyed entire neighbourhoods and sent
hundreds of thousands of people fleeing. But more quietly, it has also eaten
away at the country’s healthcare system.
It is easier to get used to outgoing
fire when very little comes back in the opposite direction.
The fervour born in March 2011 for
democratic reforms still runs high, but the initial peaceful protests against
Assad's regime have been overtaken by the government forces' brutal crackdown.
Backed by the country's Sunni Muslim majority against Assad, whose Alawite
faith stems from Shiite Islam, the rebels launched the battle with arms
smuggled into Syria, collected by defectors or bought from corrupt army
officers. Now nearly 21 months into the revolt, the insurgents control large
swathes of rural territory as well as a number of medium-sized towns, say AFP
correspondents on the ground.
Frustration mounted for months as the
United States sat on the sidelines, and peaked this week when it blacklisted
the Nusra Front, one of the uprising’s most effective fighting forces, calling
it a terrorist organization. The move was aimed at isolating the group, which
according to Iraqi and American officials has operational ties to Al Qaeda’s
franchise in Iraq. But interviews with a wide range of Syrian rebels and
activists show that for now, the blacklisting has appeared to produce the
opposite. It has united a broad spectrum of the opposition — from Islamist
fighters to liberal and nonviolent activists who fervently oppose them — in
anger and exasperation with the United States.
Some of what wounded soldiers say in a
military hospital about their determination to fight can be written off as
bravado unlikely to be put to the test. Others may be parroting the government
line about the rebels being sectarian killers out of an innate sense of
caution. But others appear to believe the government’s portrayal of the enemy
is essentially correct and are willing to go on fighting for the moment, even
as the odds mount against success.
A third force has emerged in Syria's
civil war in the form of Jabhat al-Nusra, Islamist militants who have claimed
responsibility for some of the conflict's most deadly bomb attacks. US
officials on Monday labelled the group a terrorist organisation.
Cunliffe did her Ph.D research on
monitoring Syrian archaeological sites with satellite imagery. When fighting
turned fierce in Syria, she began to consult imagery much closer to the ground
– videos and photos posted by concerned Syrian citizens. Sites were being
damaged and also looted.
Millions of dollars worth of
humanitarian aid to be moved rapidly into the most deprived areas, says Syrian
National Coalition
It is the desperate moment when we
discover that this empire, which had seemed to us the sum of all wonders, is an
endless, formless ruin, that corruption's gangrene has spread too far to be
healed by our scepter, that the triumph over enemy sovereigns has made us the
heirs of their long undoing.
The Obama administration slapped a
terrorist designation on Syrian rebel group Jabhat al-Nusra -- but only managed
to spark an anti-U.S. backlash among anti-Assad groups.
Syria
Deeply
Up in the Air
While President Obama’s interview with ABC did not exactly come as a
response to my call made yesterday that he should “justify” himself to the
Syrian people, the fact that he chose to recognize the National Coalition
himself and not do it through Secretary Clinton might indicates that there are
those in the Administration who understand the need for striking a positive
note with the Syrian people at this stage. Still, the move might be too little
too late.
Irrespective of how things will develop in the future, the U.S. now has
very few friends in Syria. While America was busy with her elections, the wrong
forces were filling up the void left by her absence with their lies, their
conspiracy theories and their Jihadis. When Jihadis couldn’t fit, a lie or a
conspiracy theory did. The net result – a pervasive sentiment that says:
America doesn’t really care about us and her interests are not necessarily
commensurate with ours, so there is no reason for us to trust her.
Still, America’s best bet at this stage is to keep supporting the
Coalition she just recognized, and has helped form. It’s no less dysfunctional
and Islamist-dominated than its predecessor, but it’s the only game in town at
this stage, and will remain so until developments on the ground make it
obsolete, which they eventually will.
More importantly, the U.S. should work more closely with the new
military command recently established by rebels in Antalya, Turkey. Most rebel
groups recognize the authority of this new council, and should it be enabled to
deliver on their expectations, it will become more legitimate, more relevant
and more capable of directing operations on the ground.
Meanwhile, Al-Nusra and its myriad affiliates and sympathizers on the
ground is emerging as a third force, that will complicate everyone’s calculations.
But don’t expect rebels to clash with Jihadis anytime soon. Whether the U.S.
likes it or not, barring some unforeseen development, the two forces will
continue their ongoing cooperation against Assad, at least until he is pushed
out of Damascus. Then, mayhem will unfold, because by now, the dynamics
favoring it are too strong.
Down in the Trenches
Clashes between rebels and pro-Assad militias in the village of Aqrab
in Hama province set the scene for a macabre incident of mass murder/suicide.
After days of sporadic fighting, pro-Assad militias managed to capture
parts of the village but were quickly besieged by rebels from the nearby town
of Houla. But the militiamen used the local women and children as hostages. The
twist: both the militiamen and the hostages were Alawites. The siege has gone
on for ten days, the militiamen hoarded all food supplies sharing little with
their hostages, and refusing them to allow them to leave.
On Tuesday, a group of local dignitaries, including a local Sunni sheikh,
tried to negotiate a surrender, offering themselves as replacements, but, as
clashes continued outside, the militia leaders went on a suicidal/homicidal
rampage, killing the negotiators, the hostages and themselves, using hand
grenades, guns and blowing up the gas tanks. But the final blow came as a
result of shelling that hit the homes in which the militiamen were sheltered.
The shelling itself was blamed on the regime forces that have been targeting
the town for weeks.
And so, the first major massacre of its kind against Alawite civilians,
with an initial death toll estimated at 200, most of whom Alawites, has been
perpetrated not by Sunnis rebels, but by Alawites militias.
This is, at least, the version of events given by Um Ayham and other an
Alawite survivors rescued by the rebels. At the end of her testimony, in which
she identifies by name many of her former captors, who hailed from the town of
Jbeileh, she begs the rebels “not to betray and kill us.” She also thanks the rebels
for helping them and treating their wounded. The rebels promise her protection.
Their spokesman invite the red cross and representatives of international
community to come and listen to her testimony, among others, because the
rebels, he said, will surely be accused of the crime, and there will be future
massacres perpetrated against rebel communities in retaliation. http://youtu.be/SKYylLUmDvI
Initial reports had indicated that deaths in Aqrab were the result of
random shelling that hit a group of homes used by locals Alawites as shelter.
Many had blamed the shelling on pro-regime forces that have been targeting the
village for weeks. Al-Arabiya TV had covered the development as it happened,
and interviewed people from the scene via Skype. Um Ayham was not the only
eye-witness blaming the pro-Assad militias (shabbiha) for the shelling and the
massacre http://youtu.be/eY-c1trFuFE
One thing is clear, and whatever future inquiries reveal: the ultimate
victims in any violent conflict are the women and children who will eventually
be betrayed even by those claiming to protect them.
Still the whole development brings forward another possibility that we
have previously failed to consider: the Masada Scenario? Should further
inquiries support the narrative related by Um Ayham and other Aqrab survivors,
Masada might be an option that some Assad supporters at least might be willing
to embrace. Or, will a more accurate description here be the Jim Jones Option? Be
that as it may, we now have another bleak scenario to consider.
An injured Alawite teenager says that the pro-Assad militias told their
hostages before they killed them that they are doing so to prevent them from
falling into the hands of the rebels. Near the end of this particular clip, a
local activist says that now the regime has an excuse to send his MiGs against
their town, and he appeals for help from the international community saying
80,000 people are now in danger http://youtu.be/z13yU2NqrjM
More testimonies http://youtu.be/QQX-MTv3QwY
Video Highlights
After ambushing a regime convoy near the Damascus International
Airport, a rebel group in Damascus made an interesting discovery: they found
boxes stuffed with chemical weapons suits http://youtu.be/XyKSc0jDPTw
Scenes from the clashes in Beit Sahem, Damascus, on the Airport
Highway http://youtu.be/Z5iisNeHjOY
Missile launchers stationed at Mazzeh Military Airport keep
lobbing missiles at rebel positions outside Damascus City, especially the
suburb of Daraya http://youtu.be/xn-VD2-cQ7U
Scenes from the clashes in Deir Baalbah, Homs http://youtu.be/kw7MTucZ9Cc
Leaked video shows pro-Assad militias pounding the town of Qusair
on the border with Lebanon with missile launchers http://youtu.be/kEg7EO6c6WM
Bread-production in Aleppo City has reverted to primitive
techniques that cannot meet the growing demand. Despite the proximity to the
Turkish borders and the control rebels have over supply routes, famine
conditions prevail in the City http://youtu.be/3NTgotsxCgo
MiGs keep pounding the Moazafeen neighborhood in Deir Ezzor City http://youtu.be/Ayiou03JkdY setting many
buildings on fire http://youtu.be/ayYRHw2NbfE
, http://youtu.be/nexeT4Aq0ac
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