Despite worry over potential use of chemical weapons, rebels
and loyalists continue their clashes. Fear is no longer a factor on the ground.
If you’re not dead, you’re fighting. The fighting will outlast Assad himself, unless
he launches a large-scale assault using chemical weapons. Then, what will Obama
do? Will he intervene? What will intervention mean?
Thursday December
6, 2012
Today’s
Death Toll: 89 (including 5 children and 7
women): 45 in Damascus and Suburbs, 21 in Aleppo, 7 in Idlib, 5 in Homs, 4 in
Hama, 3 in Daraa, 2 in Deir Ezzor, 1 in Raqqa, and 1 in Hassakeh. Points of Random Shelling: 248. Clashes: 107. In Deir Ezzor
Province, regime forces shelled Mouhassan and Buomar using phosphorous bombs. In
Damascus, they used toxic gas against the people of Daraya. Meanwhile, rebels
took control of a new base in Harasta, Damascus, and controlled two new
checkpoints along the Jordanian borders (LCC).
News
Special
Reports
A report suggests that Syria has
ramped up activity at chemical-weapons sites. But President Bashar al-Assad
might simply be sending a message to the international community.
No American president has talked more
about the need to prevent the use of weapons of mass destruction, and to lock
down existing stockpiles. And no president has insisted more publicly that this
is a time for the United States to exit wars in the Middle East, not enter new
ones.
Activists estimate there are now about
250 fixed checkpoints in Damascus, in addition to those set up by pro-regime
vigilantes known as the Popular Committees and the "flying checkpoints"
that are set up briefly and then dismantled.
The once-lively capital is now filled
with checkpoints, kidnappings, shelling and bombing. Many residents stay at
home as much as possible, awaiting the worst.
An increasing number of civilians
report that soldiers have moved into their homes and apartments while
conducting operations, and trashing, looting or even burning places before
leaving.
But for all of that writing on the
wall, it may yet be premature to suggest that the 22-month civil war that has
claimed more than 30,000 lives is near an end. The regime still has an
overwhelming advantage in fire-power, analyst Joe Holliday of the Institute for
the Study of War told the Washington Post this week, and the limits of rebel
arms and organization may mean that their victory remains many months away.
The New York Times asked whether the U.S. should recognize the National
Coalition. This was my answer:
The question before
us is not whether the United States should recognize the new coalition. Rather,
it is how the U.S. can recognize what is essentially an Islamist opposition
that refuses to provide any real guarantees on the future of the country, even
as it lobbies for the provision of arms and international support.
There is more to
acquiring recognition than providing a new facade. The U.S. should recognize
the coalition only after it provides credible guarantees that it will match
majority rule with minority rights, and address the concerns of the secular
components of the opposition and the Syrian society at large.
The leaders of the
opposition must realize that, in order to successfully lead a nation through
the difficult transition ahead, they will have to represent the concerns and
aspirations of all Syrians, irrespective of where they fall now on the
political spectrum. Otherwise the new Syrian government will doom the country
to more chaos and fragmentation.
Other opinions:
Ed
Hussein: Proceed With Caution - The U.S. should continue to stay one
removed and allow for its allies to lead.
Rime
Allaf: Too Little Too Late - Whether by design or by mistake,
the Obama administration's hedging has diminished U.S. influence over Syrians.
Joshua
Landis: As Good as It’s Going to Get - The big question that haunts the
coalition today is how it will gain control of the armed elements of the
revolution.
On rebel advances
On balance, several
analysts argue the momentum has shifted in the rebels’ favor, particularly in
light of their newly acquired surface-to-air weaponry. “Assad has been relying
on air power to keep rebels pinned in their positions. Their ability to
challenge this state of affairs has given them more confidence and enabled them
to carry out bolder operations, as we are currently seeing in Damascus, Aleppo,
Deir az-Zour and Daraa,” said Ammar Abdulhamid, an exiled Syrian activist and
fellow at the Washington, DC-based Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.
“The rebels are gradually breaking the stalemate and gaining the upper-hand […]
A de facto no-fly zone is being created,” he told NOW…
Moreover, it is
unclear how long the rebels’ surface-to-air missile (SAM) stocks can last.
“Rebel operations and fighting capabilities have always been undermined by an
unsteady flow of arms,” said Abdulhamid. “That a portion of the surface-to-air
missiles in rebel possession seems to have been gained from looting the
military bases that rebels conquered and not from external suppliers” means
that “depletion is a serious concern.” …
According to
Abdulhamid, while “the growing size and involvement of Jabhat al-Nusra is
pretty worrying,” it remains heavily outnumbered by non-jihadist rebels.
“Jabhat has its allies among rebels who share its vision for an Islamic state,
but it has more enemies, as most rebel groups refuse to endorse [this] option.”
Moreover, Abdulhamid foresees “clashes between Jabhat members and other rebel
groups” taking place “after or even during the liberation of Damascus, [which]
will ripple elsewhere in the country.”
As for the fears of
chemical weapons use by the regime, Sayigh believes it is essentially a regime
bluff. “[Assad] has been using the chemical weapons issue to sort of play a
little game, to say ‘Look, we can make trouble, and equally we can prevent that
trouble. If you want these to be secure, you need us, so they don’t fall into
bad hands, i.e., Islamists.’”
Abdulhamid,
however, argues the threat is credible. “The psychopathic tendencies of Assad
and his inner circle have been amply documented by now. We cannot put anything
beyond them. For all their manifest corruption, we are dealing here with people
who seem to believe their own lies […] Assad might decide that he is a dead man
no matter what happens, so he might as well die as a ‘hero’ of the resistance
to imperialism and Zionism.”
Video Highlights
In Harasta, Damascus, rebels parade a tank they have recently acquired
http://youtu.be/WfY4eQOTTAI Meanwhile,
the battles in Eastern Ghoutah continues http://youtu.be/omaSlX61l5A
Madyara http://youtu.be/rkLULRdW7Bw
Saqba http://youtu.be/bBSnlxuiVDM
In Deir Ezzor, rebels try to bring down a helicopter http://youtu.be/6JswES7GK_Y Elsewhere, clashes
continue around the Mayadeen Military Airport http://youtu.be/rdNqwu5fvRo , http://youtu.be/uj_j7RpBsRg
In Mray-Iyeh, Deir Ezzor, cluster bombs are used http://youtu.be/3xSiEO7ISL4
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