As world leaders do their version of the Harlem Shake, fighters
on the ground do theirs, and theirs seem to be far more spirited, and deadly. A
policy on the devolving situation in Syria seems to get outdated by the time it
is conceived. Bulletproof vests and night vision goggles in the hands of moderates
will not change the dynamics of anything on the ground nor carry you any favor.
Alawite and Sunni extremists are now dictating the pace of all developments,
and they are not in the mood for conversation.
Wednesday
February 27, 2013
Today’s
Death Toll: 210 martyrs,
including 6 women, 10 children and 5 martyrs under torture: 106 in Aleppo with 72
in Sfeira who were field-executed, 61 in Damascus and Suburbs, 12 in Idlib, 11
in Homs, 8 in Hama, 7 in Daraa, 4 in Deir Ezzor and 1 in Raqqa (LCCs).
Points
of Random Shelling: 323 points, including
23 points were shelled using warplanes, 3 points using Scud missiles, the
regime’s aircrafts used the explosive barrels in 5 points while cluster bombs
were used in 2 points, vacuum bombs were used in two points, phosphorous bombs [Correction:
more likely incendiary cluster bombs. Local activists often confuse the two] were
used in 1 point. Artillery shelling was reported in 131 points, mortar shelling
in 81 points, and rocket shelling in 84 point all around Syria (LCCs).
Clashes: 138. Successful operations by
FSA rebels included downing a military jet in Eastern Ghouta region in Damascus
Suburbs, and targeting a major pro-Assad militia checkpoint in Kafersousseh
Neighborhood in Damascus City. To the South, rebels completed their take-over
of border point number 48 along the border with Jordan arresting many soldiers
(LCCs).
News
Kerry:
U.S. must help counter aid to Syria opposition from extremists The
United States is one of about a dozen nations preparing a package of broader
financial and practical support for the rebels fighting to oust Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad. Kerry and other diplomats will frame the new help
during meetings with Syrian political opposition leaders Thursday in Rome. The
additional aid is expected to stop short of the weapons the rebels have long
sought from Western backers.
U.N.
Official for Refugees Says Syria Is Near Crisis “We are facing a moment
of truth in Syria,” the official, António Guterres, the United Nations high
commissioner for refugees, told the Council at a closed session in remarks that
were later published on his agency’s Web site. “The humanitarian situation is
dramatic beyond description. The refugee crisis is accelerating at a staggering
pace.” Mr. Guterres was one of three senior United Nations officials who
briefed the Security Council, painting what some diplomats later described as a
chilling description of the fates of civilian victims of the nearly two-year-old
uprising against President Bashar al-Assad.
Britain
can give military support to Syrian rebels after EU changes EU
sanctions to allow greater assistance but opponents of Assad say they need more
from the international community
Tony Blair calls for UK
intervention in Syria crisis In the second part of a wide-ranging
interview Newsnight presenter Kirsty Wark talks to the former UK Prime Minister
Tony Blair about the crisis in Syria, the revolutions across the Middle East,
and his role as the Middle East envoy representing the EU, UN, US and Russia. Kirsty
begins by asking Mr Blair at what point he realised there were no weapons of
mass destruction in Iraq.
Syrian opposition
set to attend Rome talks The Syrian opposition has decided it will
attend an international summit in Rome which it initially announced it would
boycott. US Secretary of State John Kerry and British Foreign Minister William
Hague have successfully convinced Syrian Opposition Council President Moaz
Al-Khatib to attend Thursday's talks. The group had previously announced it
would boycott the talks because of "the world's silence" over the
violence, as Jim Muir reports from Beirut.
Syrians
Describe Apparent Missile Strikes on Aleppo The new reports come weeks
after experts told The Lede that video of a huge explosion at Aleppo University
last month suggested that the campus had been hit by a ballistic missile.
Syria
humanitarian crisis worsening day by day, warns Oxfam UN 'worst case'
of more than a million Syrian refugees displaced to neighbouring nations could
be reached in weeks, says charity
Syria
agrees to renew passports of overseas citizens The state-run news
service announced that the Interior Ministry had directed that expired
passports be renewed for two years “regardless of the reasons that had earlier
prevented their renewal, and without obtaining the necessary authorizations.”
Once
a curiosity, captured tanks are a growing part of Syrian rebels’ arsenal The
rebel use of captured tanks and armored personnel carriers was first noticed
last summer, though the engagements then were often short. One battle that this
reporter witnessed in June outside the city of Talbiseh south of Kfar Nbouda
ended quickly when government helicopters destroyed two armored personnel
carriers the rebels had captured and turned on government soldiers. Since then,
however, rebels have captured dozens, if not hundreds, of tanks and armored
vehicles and have become adept at using them to attack Syrian government
positions. The prevalence of rebel armor – in rebel-held areas it’s now common
to see tanks and other armored vehicles parked in alleyways and orchards or
covered with foliage to camouflage them from airstrikes – belies the common
image of the rebels as vastly outgunned by a superior government force.
Special
Reports
Many feel trapped between an unloved
authority in the form of the 43-year-old Assad dynasty and hungry
revolutionaries at the gates, who resent the city's privileged lifestyle.
Not all of the kidnappings in Syria
are politically driven. In lawless areas not held by either the government or
opposition, kidnappers are increasingly driven by cold cash.
President Obama is leaning toward
providing nonlethal military equipment to certain rebels in Syria. Doing so
runs moral risks. But doing nothing to stop the violence is also a moral risk.
Can the US walk this fine line?
As Obama and the senior members of his
national security team consider the memoirs they will inevitably write and the
speeches they will invariably give after leaving office, they might reflect now
on what they will later say about their greatest regrets. At or near the top of
that list will likely be "Syria." So why not do something about it
now, before Syria becomes permanently mentioned in historical ignominy
alongside Rwanda?
We can and should do more to support
the Syrian people and the armed opposition. There are democratically-oriented
leaders among its ranks, which we should empower not only against the Assad
regime but against the growing threat of radical Islamists in the country.
My
new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on
January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria
2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my
previous briefing “The
Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The
Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.”
In its latest editorial, the Washington Post argues for real political
and military intervention by the Obama Administration. A policy of toe-dipping
will not help at this stage:
If the Obama
administration is to lead on Syria, it must commit itself to steps that can
bring about the early collapse of the regime and its replacement by a
representative and responsible alternative. Only direct political and military
intervention on the side of the opposition can make that happen.
Personally, and on the basis of available leaks, I don’t believe
that the new policy will mark much of a departure from the current do-nothing
policy:
In Washington,
activists who have lobbied for US support said the latest promises fell well
short of the action needed to topple Assad and ensure moderate rebel groups won
the day. Ammar Abdulhamid, a Syrian dissident, said: “Bulletproof vests
and night vision goggles will help you become a more effective fighter, but
they will not protect you from MiGs, tanks and Scuds, or enable you to destroy
them.”
They control airports, dams and oilfields. They are using confiscated tanks
and armored vehicles in their operations, and are in possession of helicopter gunships
and MiGs, booty from their recent take-over of Al-Jarrah Airport in Aleppo
which they have yet to use. Last weeks, they have reportedly come into the possession
of two Scud missiles after taking control of what remains of Al-Kibar nuclear
facility, which had been bombed by Israel in 2007. It’s not clear whether they managed
to get a launch-pad as well. Islamists affiliated with Jabhat Al-Nusra, the
Syrian Islamic Front, and other smaller groupings, are emerging as the dominant
force on the ground, and probably make more than half the actual functioning
rebel force.
Finding a solution in Syria is no longer about arming moderates, although
they do need to be armed to remain relevant, if not just to survive, it’s about
adopting a political strategy to bring the different parties to the negotiating
table, including the extremists from both sides of the growing sectarian
divide.
In the two months
since the U.S. designation of Jabhat al-Nusra, the group's fighters took
control of one of the Taftanaz air base in Idlib, one of largest government air
bases in northern Syria, where they seized tanks, helicopters and ammunition.
They also took over the Jarrah airfield outside Aleppo, which gave them access
to dozens of warplanes, according to rebels who took part in those battles.
In northern Syria,
the Syrian Islamic Front coalition, alongside Jabhat al-Nusra fighters backed
by Tunisian, Libyan, Iraqi and Chechen jihadists, continue to score the biggest
gains, rebels and U.S. officials said.
The Islamist
coalition led the takeover of Syria's largest dam this month, giving them
control over the electricity supply to the rebel-held east and north.
Jabhat al-Nusra,
with its own fighters and the foreigners it has attracted, is now seen as the
most powerful force in these rebel areas, along the Turkish and Iraqi borders…
Western-friendly
opposition leaders said their inability to convince the U.S. and others to
intervene in the war has discredited them among fighters and the Syrian public,
making it hard to take control. Moderate rebels continue to report occasional
battlefield gains, but the group is geographically scattered and far from
unified, rebels said.
The Islamists'
December meeting in Turkey, meanwhile, led to the creation of the Syrian
Islamic Front, a group that has become the most effective Islamist military
coalition.
The meeting was
also aimed at making sure the Western-friendly rebels weren't the only ones
with political leaders poised for a post-Assad Syria, coalition members said.
"We have a
full political project for a modern Syria," said a political
representative for the Syrian Islamic Front, from the group's new headquarters
in Istanbul. He said Islamist rule was the right of a country with a
majority-Muslim population, but that the rights of minorities would be
protected.
The U.S. and others
in the Friends of Syria will now have a harder time bolstering moderates,
analysts said…
Islamists say the
Western concept of a secularist Syrian rebel is misguided, in a Muslim nation.
"There is no such thing as a secularist fighting on the ground," said
Abu Muhammad, a leader with an Islamist group. "In the next phase, the
Syrian people won't just welcome radicals. They'll welcome the devil himself if
he'll help in the fight."
David Crane has been playing an amazing role supporting the cause of
transitional justice in Syria. He does much quietly and behind the scenes, but
his efforts have been instrumental in preparing us for the complexity of the
task ahead.
A whole range of
groups have accelerated a campaign to gather evidence of war crimes including
torture, massacres and indiscriminate killings in the Syrian regime's war
against rebels, hoping to find justice if President Bashar Assad falls. Some
talk about referring the cases to the International Criminal Court or forming a
special tribunal, but many in Syria hope that it's all laid out in the
country's own courtrooms….
David M. Crane, a
former prosecutor at the Sierra Leone tribunal, which indicted former Liberian
President Charles Taylor in 2003, said among the challenges is the multitude of
inexperienced activists collecting a flood of evidence in an uncoordinated way.
To help with
building a case for a future prosecutor, Crane created an organization called
the Syrian Accountability Initiative.
"We have
mapped the entire conflict, we have built a crime base and we have actually
sample indictments for whoever will get the case, be it a Syrian or
international prosecutor," said Crane, an international law professor at
Syracuse University in New York state. He said that the information is being
shared with the International Criminal Court, the United Nations and the Syrian
opposition.
Video Highlights
In Damascus City, the pounding of Jobar Neighborhood by
pro-Assad militias using missile launchers http://youtu.be/O2E_bSO2xSA
, http://youtu.be/3C8Y7kv4Pkg A
sample of the missiles used http://youtu.be/NMVPYbjKcVQ
Meanwhile, in the Yarmouk Camp, Palestinian fighters defect from
the ranks of Ahmad Jibril’s loyalist movement to form a pro-rebel unit http://youtu.be/WqY-SNzxXrg
In Idlib, the town of Saraqib came under intense shelling by
MiGs and missiles http://youtu.be/fggMFBjACNY
Scenes of devastation http://youtu.be/7-OjIJikR9E
Incendiary cluster bombs were used, activists still confuse them with white
phosphorous bombs http://youtu.be/JVaTsNSx0ro
In Aleppo City, rebels and loyalist clash in the neighborhoods surrounding
the Aleppo Citadel http://youtu.be/pzdcbqOqcHQ
, http://youtu.be/OGb1Oz_wYOw , http://youtu.be/Eq9hK4UGewQ
The pounding of Jabal Al-Akrad region in North Lattakia continues
http://youtu.be/JacpG9aR_-8
The pounding of Deir Ezzor City continues: Al-Hawiqa
neighborhood http://youtu.be/Oc9TWg87Nu4
, http://youtu.be/DPcVH4p8Jg8
Syrian activists in Idlib do the Halrem Shake http://youtu.be/T-v0sT2FG3Y
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