Chemical Weapons might be the poor man’s nuclear missiles,
but mixing these chemicals and mounting them on a rocket then launching it successfully
still requires a certain level of expertise that rebel groups in the country do
not seem to have. Moreover, before the Aleppo attack was reported, activists in
Damascus made similar claims and produced similar videos regarding an attack on
the town of Al-Otaybeh in Eastern Ghoutah. Considering the timing of the Aleppo
attack, if confirmed, less than 24 hours after the opposition selected a PM,
and considering the drive by France and the UK to arm rebels and the current military
setbacks the regime is facing in showdowns all over the country, the regime
seems to be desperate enough to seek comfort in chemistry.
Tuesday March
19, 2013
Today’s
Death Toll: 131, including 6
women, 9 children and 3 under torture: 46 in Damascus and Suburbs, 41 in Aleppo,
13 in Deir Ezzor, 8 in Hama, 7 in Idlib, 5 in Daraa, 4 in Raqqa, 3 in Homs, 2
in Lattakia, and 1 in Quneitra (LCCs).
Points
of Random Shelling: 354. Aerial bombardments
by warplanes counted in 15 points. Scud bombing counted in 6 points. Shelling
using Surface-to-Surface missiles counted for in 8 points, most targeting Deir
Ezzor. Explosive barrels were used in 9 points. Shelling using cluster bombs
was recorded in Tabaqah in Raqqa. Artillery shelling counted in 127 points. Mortar
shelling counted in 98 points. Rocket shelling counted for 97 points (LCCs).
Clashes: 132. Successful rebel operation
include targeting Army Command Headquarters and the Ministry of Defense in
Damascus, the Military Airport of Raqqa, and the Military Security Center in
the town of Kubajib in Deir Ezzor city (which was also hit by regime’s
warplanes by mistake). In Kubajib, also destroyed a loyalist convoy (LCCs).
News
Regime & Russia accuse: Alleged
chemical attack kills 25 in northern Syria
U.S. evaluates: U.S.
evaluating Syria chemical weapons charges
Israel confirms: First
use of a chemical weapon in Syria appears confirmed
Experts dispute claim: Chemical
Warfare allegations in Syria – An initial assessment
Activists allege another attack in
Damascus: Second
Chemical Attack in Damascus
Top
Democrat endorses Syria no-fly zone Senate Armed Services Committee
Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI) endorsed Tuesday the idea of establishing a no-fly
zone inside Syria and attacking the air defenses and air power of Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad… Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on Tuesday called for the
United States to put boots on the ground in Syria to secure chemical weapons
sites, in light of new allegations that chemical weapons were used in Aleppo
province.
U.S.
Commander: Contingency plans under way for Syria "The Syrian
situation continues to become worse and worse and worse," Adm. James
Stavridis, the commander of U.S. European Command, told the Senate Armed
Services Committee. "No end in sight to a vicious civil war." Robert
Ford, the U.S. ambassador to Syria, said the Syrian people "face a new
level of ruthlessness from the Assad regime, which is raining Scud missiles
down on residential neighborhoods, destroying hospitals and schools, and
sending its thugs rampaging through the streets to terrorize their fellow
citizens. The carnage is appalling." Ford's comments came in prepared
testimony for Wednesday's House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing. The
Associated Press obtained a copy of his statement.
Syrian
Opposition Pledges Rule of Law in Rebel-Held Areas Speaking yesterday
after opposition delegates elected him to the premier’s post during a meeting
in Istanbul, Hitto said his nascent administration would begin to govern from
inside the country, appealed for members of the armed forces to lay down their
arms and promised that there would be no dialogue with Assad. The opposition
should take the Syrian government’s seat at the United Nations and the Arab
League and have control over the country’s embassies, he said.
FDD
Praises Senators Casey and Rubio for New Syria Legislation If passed,
the Syria Democratic Transition Act of 2013 will require the U.S. to support the
establishment of a new government in Damascus that is committed to pluralism,
democracy, and peace. It will also mean strengthening those within the Syrian
opposition who are pursuing this goal. "Economic warfare against the Assad
regime, its overseas assets, and those foreign persons who provide the regime a
financial lifeline are a crucial part of an overall strategy to overthrow the
regime and support Syria's moderate opposition forces ,” said Mark Dubowitz,
FDD Executive Director who leads the Foundation’s projects on sanctions and
nonproliferation.
British
charities launch first joint Syria appeal Four British charities have
publicly admitted for the first time that they are operating inside Syria on
the eve of a major appeal for the stricken Middle Eastern nation which is being
launched tomorrow by the Disaster Emergency Committee. It is the first time a
joint appeal has been launched for Syria following two years of fighting which
has killed more than 70,000 people and forced an estimated three million from
their homes. Staff with Islamic Relief, Save the Children, Christian Aid and
CAFOD are all taking extraordinary risks delivering aid directly to those
affected by the on-going war as well as those who have managed to find
sanctuary in neighbouring countries.
Reports
of Syrian jet fire into Lebanon called 'significant escalation' The
French Foreign Ministry in Lebanon issued a statement condemning the attacks. "The
aerial bombing carried out today by the armed forces of the Syrian regime on
Lebanese territory, in the region of Ersal, is a new and serious violation of
Lebanon's sovereignty," the statement said. "France strongly condemns
this escalation and reiterates its commitment to Lebanon's sovereignty and the
inviolability of its borders."
Special
Reports
Islamic law comes to rebel-held Syria Building
on the reputation they have earned in recent months as the rebellion’s most
accomplished fighters, Islamist units are seeking to assert their authority
over civilian life, imposing Islamic codes and punishments and administering
day-to-day matters such as divorce, marriage and vehicle licensing. Numerous
Islamist groups are involved, representing a wide spectrum of views. But,
increasingly, the dominant role is falling to Jabhat al-Nusra, also known as
al-Nusra Front. The group has been designated a terrorist organization by the
United States for suspected ties to al-Qaeda but is widely respected by many
ordinary Syrians for its battlefield prowess and the assistance it has provided
to needy civilians.
A friend brought to my attention this
new service launched by NY Times to monitor developments in Syria: Watching Syria’s War
Videos and images of the continuing conflict in Syria. The site is
edited by Liam Stack known for his balanced reporting. I found the site very
useful and in some ways reminiscent of Lara Setrakian’s Syria Deeply.
My
new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on
January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria
2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my
previous briefing “The
Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The
Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.”
Many people in Syria and across the world continue to wonder why the
Syrian uprising took such a violent turn, despite the bravery and selflessness
of so many of the early protest leaders. Indeed, the development seems to have
come as a result of a sophisticated strategy implemented by the Assad regime
from the outset. Understanding this strategy, rather than lamenting the
situation, as so many nonviolence advocates and theoreticians continue to do,
might help prevent its replication elsewhere. (Keep
reading, a longer version can be accessed here)
My colleague Joshua Landis published an interesting debate on the
nature of the Free Syrian Army on his blog Syria Comment. Both Koert and Aron
provides interesting peaks into the world of rebels affiliated with the Free
Syrian Army, and both make excellent points. However, I have to say that, in
general, I tend to agree more with Aron’s analysis. Albeit Koert’s analysis seems
to capture the dynamics in parts of Aleppo more accurately. We also have to
bear in mind that groups like Jabhat Al-Nusra and its affiliates do not consider
themselves members of the FSA. So do many of the groups affiliated with the
Syrian Islamic Front. In other words, even at its best, the FSA cannot be seen
as being able to include all major fighting groups on the scene. At this stage,
it’s one of several loosely organized armies active on the scene. (Lund’s paper can be downloaded here)
Video Highlights
State TV claims that “terrorists” launched a chemical attack on Khan
Al-Assal http://youtu.be/_b0lGQuNucY While
Israel confirms the attack, Dr. Jean-Pascal Zanders, European Union Institute
for Security Studies questions
whether the images we see reflect a chemical attack:
·
There are no images of the
site of the attack; just of some affected people. These people do not show
outward symptoms of a CW attack. Definitely not mustard; definitely not a nerve
agent.
·
There are far too many
people, including non-medical staff, around the affected persons. Apart from a
surgical mask, nobody wears any protective garment or gas masks. If there would
have been a CW attack with one of the agents known (or believed) to be in Syria’s
arsenal, then most of the people present would have been fatally or seriously
contaminated.
·
I am deeply sceptical of
allegations that the insurgents would have resorted to CW. There would have far
greater propaganda benefits if they were to demonstrate to the world that they
had overrun one of the storage or production facilities. In addition, insurgent
spokespersons were very quick to deny the government allegation.
·
Regarding a case of a
transfer to (and, hence, use by) surrogates of the Syrian government, I have
already expressed my views on such a scenario.
·
Present-day battlefields
are extremely toxic. Many materials may be propelled into the air and inhaled
by bystanders. If some (toxic) chemical container were hit by a shell, then
bystanders could be badly affected, as we have seen in a variety of recent
internal conflicts (former Yugoslavia; Sri Lanka; Iraq; etc.). Bhopal reminds
us of the large-scale effects of an industrial accident. Any investigation of
the allegation must first exclude plausible alternative explanations.
Meanwhile, rebels provide these videos as evidence of chemical weapons
use in the town of Otaybeh in Eastern Ghoutah region, Damascus suburbs.
The attacks preceded those in Aleppo and took place in rebel strongholds http://youtu.be/MKZ4QOKqtZI , http://youtu.be/Wip5qSM9mio , http://youtu.be/UwbFPMMxEjY , http://youtu.be/sgL8BeIzsv4 , http://youtu.be/-ME3RLI-yOc , http://youtu.be/n618SrZSVWE Site of the pounding
http://youtu.be/MfIz22wbgiE Doctor
claims that all patients had respiratory problems postulating that some
phosphate based compound was used http://youtu.be/eEm20CyX2lg
Three were reportedly killed.
Activists in Baba Amr Neighborhood in Homs City make similar
claims http://youtu.be/IuamfvTe088
Rebels in Deir Ezzor blow up a regime convoy heading towards the
town of Kubajib http://youtu.be/EvjRqqbqrXY
Then attack the survivors http://youtu.be/sLJiQ71iYr0
In the town of Kubajib itself, activists claim that a regime’s warplane bombed
the headquarters of the local military security branch seemingly by mistake http://youtu.be/9ZHZkH7albA
Battles are really heating up in the southern parts of Syria, especially
in the Daraa Province. This reflects the fact that rebels have received more
advanced weapons, and the plan seems to liberate the province and help lay
siege to Damascus City. It will still take a few more weeks of pressure before
this can be achieved, barring setbacks.
In Daraa City, clashes between loyalists and rebels intensify http://youtu.be/U-GY3poOTf4 , http://youtu.be/ip6rJuuHUfw
In Damascus City, regime uses missile launchers stations at the Mazzeh
Military Airport to target rebel strongholds to the west http://youtu.be/owqAkc_IiFQ Neighborhoods
to the south are also targeted http://youtu.be/03RIS59XmhQ
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