Liberating land without the ability to secure the air makes
Syria a disintegrating state. But since no one has any plans for a no-fly zone,
a failed state and an imploding region is what we have to contend with for years
to come.
Tuesday March
4, 2013
Today’s
Death Toll: 149 martyrs, including
6 children, 1 woman, and 2 martyrs under torture: 40 martyrs in Damascus and Suburbs,
35 in Raqqa, 25 in Aleppo, 17 in Homs, 12 in Daraa, 10 in Idlib, 6 in Hama, 3 in
Deir Ezzor, and 1 in Lattakia (LCCs).
Points
of Random Shelling: 395 points, including
1 point shelled by Scud missile, 5 point by regime warplanes. Shelling using
cluster bombs was reported in Saraqeb in Idlib, shelling using
surface-to-surface missile was reported in 1 point; in addition, 163 points
were targeted by shelling using heavy caliber artillery, 119 points using
mortars and 105 using rockets (LCCs).
Clashes: 145. Successful operations include
the liberation of Raqqa City, tightening siege of the military airports of
Minnigh and Kuweiris in Aleppo, liberation of the Haramla checkpoint in the
town of Zabadani, Damascus Suburbs, repelling an attack on the town of Daraya, destroying
a BMP armored vehicle near Abbasid Square on the road leading to Jobar (LCCs).
News
Kerry
Criticizes Iran and Russia for Shipping Arms to Syria “There is no
guarantee that one weapon or another might not at some point in time fall into
the wrong hands,” Mr. Kerry said in a joint news conference in Riyadh with the
Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal. “But I will tell you this. There
is a very clear ability now in the Syrian opposition to make certain that what
goes to the moderate, legitimate opposition is, in fact, getting to them, and
the indication is that they are increasing their pressure as a result of that.”
Syrians
tear down statue of Bashar al-Assad's father after rebel advance Footage
shows protesters beating gold statue of Hafez al-Assad with shoes in city of
Raqqa near Turkish border… The euphoria, however, is brief. A second video taken
by activists soon afterwards captures a government mortar landing in the
square, followed by thick black smoke. Several dead and injured lie on the
ground. Rebels frantically load the wounded, including a woman, into cars as a
second mortar drops nearby.
Israel
warns it cannot "stand idle" as Syria war spills over border Israeli
U.N. Ambassador Ron Prosor wrote to the 15-member council to complain about
shells from Syria landing in Israel. "Israel cannot be expected to stand
idle as the lives of its citizens are being put at risk by the Syrian
government's reckless actions," Proser wrote. "Israel has shown
maximum restraint thus far."
IAEA
says not yet contacted by Syria rebels about ex-nuclear site he U.N.'s
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has long sought access to a site in
Syria's desert Deir al-Zor region that U.S. intelligence reports say was a
nascent, North Korean-designed reactor geared to producing plutonium for
nuclear weapons before Israel bombed it in 2007. On February 24, opposition
sources in eastern Syria said rebels had captured the destroyed site near the
Euphrates River. "Certainly we are aware of the report on (the) rebel
group's offer to invite us to the site of Deir al-Zor but we are not aware of
any communication to that effect," Amano, IAEA director general, told a
news conference, referring to a media report last month.
Iraq
ambush kills 48 'unarmed, wounded' Syrian soldiers The ambush in Anbar
province, a day after a key Syrian opposition group accused Iraq of interfering
in Syria, threatens to entangle Baghdad in its neighbour's civil war --
something it has tried hard to avoid. "This confirms our fears of the
attempt of some to move the conflict to Iraq, but we will face these attempts
by all sides with all of our power," Ali Mussawi, Prime Minister Nuri
al-Maliki's spokesman, said of the ambush.
No
endgame in sight for Syria's civil war Last week's events provided a
glimmer of hope but at this point it's still difficult to see signs of an
endgame in Syria.
Special
Reports
Just as the Leader forces crowds into
the streets, the Assad regime controlled the masses through fear and
intimidation until, nearly two years ago, Syrians resisted and started
protesting for reform—only to be shot in the streets. They demanded Assad’s downfall
instead. Another word came to Sirees: slavery. “If a slave ran away, his master
would find him and kill him,” he said. “The same is happening now. If anyone
defects from the Army, from his post, his party—if he defects from the
masses—in the mind of the leader, he deserves to be executed.”
Syria's Aleppo Province elected a
local council this weekend, replacing an interim local government and taking a
step toward restoring some semblance of order to the war-torn province.
I think there’s a sense everywhere
that the stalemate is increasingly bloody, increasingly costly and is really
putting the future of Syria as a state at risk. I think the conventional wisdom
everywhere is that intervention is risky and may have unintentional
consequences. Iraq and Afghanistan have left everybody with a bad taste about
intervention. Syria is showing us that doing nothing can be just as bad.
On February 20, an unexploded rocket
was found in Hermel’s al-Qasr village, in the eastern Bekaa Valley on the
border with Syria. It had allegedly been fired from Syria by the Free Syrian
Army rebels to counter an attack from Hezbollah fighters. Two days later, the
Free Syrian Army accused Hezbollah of invading villages inside Syria and issued
an ultimatum to the Party of God to cease its operations in their country or
face attacks on its installations in the Hermel region of Lebanon. The
ultimatum did not end with a war between the FSA and Hezbollah. But the
stand-off did shed light on a battle between the Syrian rebels and Hezbollah
fighters that has been going on for months in Syrian villages in Qusayr area,
next to the Lebanese border. A few days after the FSA ultimatum, Hermel was
quiet, but residents warned that “many journalists [have been] arrested and
expelled from these parts.” A resident told NOW that “Hezbollah is keeping this
area under very strict control.”
Syrian rebel leader General Salim
Idris was a general in the army of Syria's dictator, Bashar al Assad until he
defected 10 months ago. He speaks with Margaret Brennan about what anti-regime
forces need from the U.S. to bring down Assad.
In a town market in Douma – a Damascus
suburb under the control of the FSA – some local shopkeepers are seemingly
reluctant to take sides in a conflict which has wracked the country for the
past two years. Abu Abdo, an elderly shoemaker in his seventies told me his
mind when I asked him his opinion: "I just want to live and work so I can
feed my family. I don't care who rules because [whoever comes in] will always
be a corrupt hypocrite. Both sides – the regime and the opposition aren't worth
supporting as they both steal and kill. Death, homelessness and destruction is
all that we've got from them".
My
new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on
January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria
2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my
previous briefing “The
Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The
Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.”
The “Aleppo” Elections
The fact that elections for the new ruling council in Aleppo took place
in Gaziantep, Turkey, is in itself a clear indication of the virtual impossibility
of establishing the mere semblance of normal governance in any of the liberated
territories, so long as the skies are not safe. The elections that took place
could not have been in any way shape or form representative of the real communal
and political diversity in Aleppo City, and making too much out of it gives too
much legitimacy to a group that plans to conduct its affairs on the basis of
Sharia law without consulting or paying any difference to the existing civil
code. The people did not rise up against the civil code, they rose up against
corruption and authoritarianism. The intentions of the people who organized and
took part in the elections are probably good, but they are limited by their
ideological predilections, limited experience and social backgrounds.
So, let’s not spin
this development: it’s actually a sign of how bad things are in Syria today,
and a testament to how the international community is facilitating the rise of
Islamists, moderates and extremists, through its indifference. Only a no-fly
zone can enable people to organize reliable elections in liberated territories,
thus ensuring adequate participation and representation. The Islamists might
still dominate the political process, considering all that has taken place so
far, but there is a difference between a 50% representation and a 90% representation.
Iran has taken
command inside Syria and is maneuvering to create a new leadership structure;
in the meantime Assad’s regime has crumbled to merely a façade. Evidence of
this can be found most obviously in the 9 January prisoner swap between
opposition and regime forces, as well as in the increased role Iran has
recently been playing in military planning and operations…
… Further, Iran is
building a sectarian Alawite- and Shia-majority militia, Ammar Abdulhamid,
a pro-democracy Syrian activist based in Washington DC, and the head of the
Tharwa Foundation, tells NOW. Abdulhamid believes this new militia will seek to
maintain old alliances with minority communities, loyalist Sunni clans and
groups, while attempting to forge new ones in the future among potential
‘rogue’ rebel units who would be more interested in carving out turf for
themselves than in the fate of the country.
“At this stage,”
adds Abdulhamid, “Assad is a mere placeholder. Despite the all-too-real cult of
personality that surrounds Assad in the ranks of the Alawite community, this
does not ensure his long-term survival. Iran eventually wants a group that will
be beholden to [it] first, not to Assad,” says Abdulhamid.
Video Highlights
The “liberation” of Raqqa City
The rebels in charge of the liberation were all members of Jabhat
Al-Nusra, Ahrar Al-Sham and the Syrian Islamic Front.
Protesters in Raqqa City bring down a giant statue of Hafiz
Al-Assad soon after rebels entered in the city http://youtu.be/85uiTAjIN-A , http://youtu.be/zO2WRlepeKQ , http://youtu.be/85uiTAjIN-A But they soon
came under mortar fire from pro-regime forces still active in the outskirts of
the city http://youtu.be/leEbu51Et-4 ,
http://youtu.be/sSojL9Y0cEA The dead
and wounded line the streets http://youtu.be/0e1NJyiVGxI
Scenes from the last battles that preceded the liberation of the city:
an attack on a local police headquarters (Hajjaneh) http://youtu.be/IA7iwOyDxe4 Rebels claim
victory http://youtu.be/f5bgZeZBTXQ Then
proceed to liberate another checkpoint inside the City’s perimeters http://youtu.be/WRCRlOf8TMY A victory
parade http://youtu.be/GbYn24z06_w , http://youtu.be/28ufMYXkLo0 Rebels take
over the local security headquarters http://youtu.be/Ryou6NYqgnE
Rebels protest the local archeological museum http://youtu.be/EnbSShfMT54 Then move to
secure the Governor’s Palace http://youtu.be/tQyPbCqj2As
The Governor, Hassan Salih Jalali, and the local Baath leader are arrested http://youtu.be/T9RJ0fzWiCc
Destroying a picture of Khamenei found in a local security headquarters
http://youtu.be/7lgITlPIVmI
Pro-Assad militias are not giving up though, and they have formed their
own resistance group to fight back http://youtu.be/MpVOz1zuRRo
In Raqqa’s second largest city of Tabaqa, rebels clash with
remnant of the regime forces http://youtu.be/6b4o9Ge44JU
, http://youtu.be/fm5UfRormcc
Aleppo
Col. Abdel-Jabbar Al-Oqaidi inspects the siege of Minnigh Airport,
Aleppo http://youtu.be/Zmrs4yeegew Rebels
continue their siege http://youtu.be/Ucpo4jzLaE0
and prepare for the final assault http://youtu.be/jNvkSA5Ysds
Rebels pounding the military airport of Kuweiris http://youtu.be/tb81mcJuB8w
Hassakeh
In the town of Shdadi, Hassakeh Province, rebels bring down the
regime’s flags from the local oilfield installation http://youtu.be/Amdxgm3CCtk and celebrate their victory with Jabhat Al-Nusra
cries of “Our eternal leader is our Master Muhammad” http://youtu.be/293s9KeEDUw
Rebels control the Yaroubiya Border Checkpoint with Iraq http://youtu.be/G7GfoUEBAQs
Homs
The attack on the rebel strongholds in central Homs City intensifies
http://youtu.be/R4NGYHp1FEk
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