In the absence of leaders, no dialogue is possible, and in
the absence of dialogue no salvation is possible for a state crumbling along ethnic
and regional lines. But with killers representing one side and nincompoops the other,
our tragedy is bound to drag on for many months to come, and Syria’s fate might
have already been sealed. Our only hope lies in having those few voices of
rationality out there, represented by the like of opposition leader Moaz
Al-Khatib and the Revolution’s top thinker, Yassin Al-Haj Saleh, finding enough
soulmates in time to enable the opposition to project a strong alternative that
can be embraced and empowered both by the international community and rebel leaders.
Perhaps when one side finally stumbles on capable leadership and a viable
program, the other side will be compelled to do the same to stave off defeat.
Wednesday
January 30, 2013
Today’s
Death Toll: 144 martyrs, including 7 children and 3 women: 39 in Aleppo,
42 in Damascus and suburbs, 27 in Homs, 13 in Idlib, 7 in Hama, 6 in Hasakeh, 3
in each of Raqqah, Deir Ezzor, and Dara’a, and 1 in Qunteira (LCCs).
Points
of Random Shelling: 374 points,
including 13 points from warplane shelling, 2 points have been recorded from
the use of phosphorus bombs, and 1 point each from cluster bombs, Thermobaric
bombs, and TNT barrel. Artillery shelling has been recorded as 146 points and
was most violent in Damascus, followed by 130 points of mortar shelling, and 80
points of missile strikes (LCCs).
Clashes: 133 locations. Successful operations included the downing
of two warplanes in Karnaz and Kafar Nabouda in Hama, liberating the military
Gas Station on Aleppo-Latakia Highway, and hitting various loyalist checkpoints
in Harran Al-Awamid and Qadam neighborhoods in Damascus (LCCs).
News
Israeli
Jets Blast Arms Shipment Inside Syria The early-morning strike in a
border area west of Damascus targeted a convoy of trucks carrying Russian-made
SA-17 missiles to Hezbollah, the anti-Israel Shiite militant and political
group in Lebanon, according to a Western official briefed on the raid.
Syria
Opposition Leader Would Talk to Assad Regime Al-Khatib was chosen in
November to head the Syrian National Coalition, a new umbrella group designed
to represent most of the rebels and soothe Western concerns about the ability
of the opposition to pull together and present a viable alternative to Assad's
rule. His offer to talk to regime officials threatened to fracture the
opposition once again. After an outcry, al-Khatib said he was just expressing
his own opinion.
Piecing
Together Accounts of a Massacre in Syria The rebels and the government
have blamed each other for the mass killing, but Ms. Sherlock, of The Daily
Telegraph, reported that many of the dead were residents of rebel-held areas
whose families said they disappeared after traveling to government-held areas. “It
was impossible to be certain who was responsible for their deaths. But those
identified, at least half the total by nightfall, were from rebel-held
districts, and locals blamed government checkpoints on the other side of the
river.”
Special
Reports
Located on flatlands and ringed by
wheat and potato fields that offer little cover or concealment, the base and
the village at its eastern side have even been nigh unapproachable. To venture
near has been to risk machine-gun and rifle fire, as well as high-explosive
ordnance from armored vehicles and tanks or an attack from one of the
patrolling aircraft that serve as the lifeline for entrapped soldiers within. The
rebels hope to change that this winter. In recent weeks they have rejoined the
battle for Minakh with greater intensity, driven in part by a sense that the
government garrison on the base – thinned by casualties and defections – is
significantly weaker than what it was.
Reports indicate that Hezbollah
recently expanded its actions in Syria to include its most valued resource —
its highly trained and strategically irreplaceable special forces units.
Hezbollah’s secretive military wing is reportedly composed of 2,000 to 4,000
professional soldiers and thousands of reservists hailing from Shiite villages
south of the Litani river and the Bekaa Valley, meant to be called into action
to repel a future Israeli invasion. During the 2006 conflict with Israel, the
loss of roughly one quarter of Hezbollah’s special forces was assumed to
constitute the group’s most severe setback. Varying reports from Syria suggest
that the direct participation of these special forces units in combat zones
nationwide has increased, and additional forces may be on the way.
Impossible Dialogue, Improbable Politics
The willingness of Syrian opposition leader Moaz Al-Khatib to dialog
with the Assad regime was misrepresented and misinterpreted by all. For in
order to conduct such dialog with regime figures, Mr. Al-Khatib stipulated the
release of all 160,000 political prisoners currently languishing in regime jails,
granting Syrian passports to all Syrian exiles, and holding the talks somewhere
outside Syria. A regime that has already failed to honor its commitment to
release 2,300 detainees as part of a much publicized prisoner exchange program
that led to the release of 50 Iranian hostages held by rebels, the regime
released only 200 detainees to date, is unlikely to accept these conditions,
and Mr. Al-Khatib knows it. So, why even make the overture, one might ask? Smart
politics.
Rejecting dialog outright when international leaders are calling for a
political solution is simply not smart politics, entering dialog without any
conditions as some opposition groups who recently met in Geneva seem willing to
do is equally dumb. But asking for something that makes sense, sch as freedom
for all political detainees so they can take part in monitoring the dialogue,
and so that conditions on the ground for making dialogue possible are created,
now that’s smart politics. That’s brave politics, and Mr. Al-Khatib has shown
to be a capable leaders. Unfortunately though, he has also shown himself to be
a lone voice in a political wilderness. The criticism he has received from the
very coalition he is leading proves it.
Video Highlights
The regime pound the city of Tabaqa, Raqqa Province, with barrel
bombs http://youtu.be/Kql50ylJHsI Rebels try to take down the planes with their heavy
guns http://youtu.be/TPeuzf38y0Y
I have commented on this leaked video before, but now it comes with English
subtitles: Soldiers of Al Assad's army arrest a civilian and torture him to
entertain themselves. They try not to hit him hard in order to keep him alive
so that they can have more fun. He begs them to let him see his kids one last
time, but they insult him by agreeing on one condition which is letting them
sleep with his wife. At the end of this footage, some of them get angry and sad
because he died and they lost their enjoyment! http://youtu.be/XGcQoScTWn8
Rebels in Deir Ezzor City celebrate the liberation of the
political security headquarters http://youtu.be/DpCdnu50d-w
Rebels in Al-Qadam Neighborhood, Damascus City keep repelling attempts
by regime forces to storm the neighborhood http://youtu.be/bobI6rme95U
, http://youtu.be/JlWP2gqB1xA , http://youtu.be/Zp6T29uHhF8 The pounding
of the nearby Yarmouk Camp continues http://youtu.be/_92HRVUSWpc In Eastern
Ghoutah, this goes for a quiet day in the suburb of Harasta http://youtu.be/cmZXt-kJfPo
Rebels in Salaheddine Neighborhood, Aleppo City, stand by a
no-man’s land separating them from positions of regime loyalists http://youtu.be/u7uj67yevu0
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