Some claim that dialogue will kill the revolution. Others assert
that the armed struggle has already killed the revolution, but what’s really
killing the revolution is failure to coordinate and to realize that a
revolution, by its very nature, is a multi-track venture, involving politics and
culture, as well as bullets.
Thursday January
31, 2013
Today’s
Death Toll: 105 martyrs, including 4 children, 3 women and 3 deaths under
torture: 58 in Damascus and Suburbs; 13 in Idlib; 12 in Aleppo; 12 in Homs; 4
in Daraa; 3 in Deir Ezzor; 1 in Quneitra; 1 in Hama; 1 Hasakeh (LCCs).
Points
of Random Shelling: 337 points,
including 15 points that were shelled by warplanes and helicopter gunships, 2
points using cluster bombs, 8 points with barrel bombs, 145 points using heavy
caliber artillery where the most intensified were documented in Damascus
Suburbs, 116 points were targeted with mortar and 57 points with rockets (LCCs).
Clashes: FSA rebels clashed with the regime forces in 145 locations.
Sucessful operations included shooting down two warplanes in Damascus, in
Harran Al-Awameed and the Dumair Airport. In Damascus Suburbs rebels also
attacked regime checkpoints in Ain Tarma, shelled the military barrack located
at the entrance of Yarmouk Camp, and targeted the Fakhoukh checkpoint located
between the villages of Halboun and Wafra in the Qalamoun Region to the north (LCCs).
News
Syria
warns of "surprise" response to Israel attack Damascus could
take "a surprise decision to respond to the aggression of the Israeli
warplanes", Syrian ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdul-Karim Ali said a day
after Israel struck against Syria.
Syria’s
Confirmation of Strike May Add to Tension With Israel Most experts
agree that Syria, Hezbollah and Israel each have strong reasons to avoid a new
active conflict right now… But it is equally clear that Hezbollah — backed by
Syria and Iran — wants desperately to upgrade its arsenal in hopes of changing
the parameters for any future engagement with the powerful Israeli military,
and that Israel is determined to stop it. And Hezbollah is perhaps even more
anxious to gird itself for future challenges to its primacy in Lebanon,
especially if a Sunni-led revolution triumphs next door in Syria.
Jordan
Islamist sees clash with secular Syrian rebels Mohammed Shalabi, better
known as Abu Sayyaf, said Islamist fighters with groups such as the Nusra
Front, which the United States lists as a terrorist organization, had refused
offers to join the rebel Free Syrian Army in return for pay and weapons. If
Assad is overthrown, he told Reuters, the Free Syrian Army, or elements within
it ideologically hostile to the Nusra Front, would immediately order Islamist
groups to disarm. "Then there will be a confrontation between us and
losses will rise, but I don't want to pre-empt events," he said.
Syrian
opposition chief sets conditions for talks Khatib said via his Facebook
page he was ready for dialogue with officials from Assad’s regime subject to
conditions, including that “160,000 detainees” are released and that passports
for exiled citizens be renewed in embassies abroad… Khatib said on his Facebook
page that he rejected being subject to “intellectual terrorism” in putting
forward the controversial proposal. “If anyone thinks that no Syrian wants to
hear such ideas, he is deluded,” he added.
Syria
mediator will not return to Damascus, guarded on talks "It is
worthy of note," Brahimi said of a statement by Syrian National Council
leader Moaz al-Khatib that he was "ready for direct discussions"
outside of Syria. But the UN-Arab League envoy said the reaction of the
government and other opposition figures would be crucial.
Special
Reports
Currently, members of the Coalition
are unqualified for even the simplest political tasks; their experience and
political culture are superficial. We must move toward a new government that
will overcome the incompetency of this Coalition, and advance the revolution. We
went to the previous Friends of Syria meeting in Marrakesh without a government
and we will go to Paris without a government as well, despite the fact that we
know that the international support is conditional upon building a political
and civil administration. The compromises inherent in the Coalition have
crippled it, and we have inflicted further losses on the revolution because of
the process of formation and defects in its basic structure. Because we
transferred the internal structure, or every mechanism of disruption, that the
Syrian National Council suffered from to the Syrian Opposition Coalition, we
have lowered the bar of achievement.
As the Assad regime continues its bloody
campaign to remain in power, Washington Institute scholars assess the impact of
current and potential spillover on Syria's neighbors, Turkey, Iraq, Israel,
Jordan, and Lebanon.
…the hopes that President Vladimir
Putin will finally budge on his support for the Syrian regime are unwarranted.
Russia is unlikely to change its position given that its interests in Syria are
not only military and strategic, but also commercial and cultural.
The United Nations says an
international donor conference has raised about $500 million for humanitarian
relief efforts inside war-ravaged Syria. Most of those funds are likely to go
to aid agencies operating out of Damascus under official Syrian government
supervision. But some relief workers say unofficial methods are better for
reaching many Syrians in need of help.
A coincidence becomes a cruel joke in
this case as “President Obama pledged an additional $155 million in humanitarian
aid for Syria on Tuesday.” Really, the problem isn’t enough humanitarian aid?
Don’t get me wrong — that is needed but what would be better, of course, would
be some definitive U.S. action to stem the mass murder. Aid is for victims;
U.S. action would be to prevent more victims.
Though it’s unlikely that this changes
anything dramatically, the strike allows Assad and company to, at least for the
moment, emphasize a shared mission of “resistance and self-defense” against
Israel. For Iran and Hezbollah, that’s likely a much more palatable reason to
help Assad than is the true mission of saving his regime from the popular
uprising that became a civil war. Any boost this gives to Assad’s alliances
will likely be more about appearances than the underlying fundamentals of the
conflict. The civil war is still bloody, costly, and overwhelmingly about
fighting Syrian rebels, not Israeli air force jets. Still, in the ideologically
charges Middle East, these things can matter.
Agencies and host countries are
struggling to cope. Most of the refugees are women and children. In Lebanon
there are no official camps, so they lodge with families. Conditions in camps
in Jordan and Iraq are grim. Earlier this year rainstorms and even snowy
blizzards turned some camps into quagmires. Children died of cold. Some tents
went up in flames as refugees stoked fires inside them to be warm. The plight
of an estimated 2m Syrians displaced inside the country is even worse.
Who’s the Boss?
Speculations by some regime insiders, which they expressed on social
media over the last 24 hours, assert that the Assad regime’s claim that a
research facility was attacked by Israeli jets rather than a military convoy reveals
that the regime in fact had no idea that Hezbollah operatives in Syria were arranging
for transfer of sophisticated weaponry to their bases in Lebanon. If this is
true, then, Syria is truly becoming a theater for operations by external forces
of all kinds at this stage, and Assad, as I have argued earlier, is only a necessary
but disposable placeholder at this stage. In the background, Iranian advisers
must be busy setting up a new system designed to outlive regimefall and keep
Iran’s relevant to the unfolding processes through the creation of a loyalist
militias made up mostly of Alawite recruits.
A Political Solution?
I am all for a political solution at this stage, but those who call
for such a solution then say that an arms embargo on both sides is necessary to
enable it fail to understand the psyche of the combatants, especially those on
Assad’s side. The reality is the real obstacle to serious talks in Syria is the
regime itself, much more so than rebel intransigence or opposition incompetence.
The Assad Camp still believe that events can be rolled back and that the regime
under Assad leadership can and should survive. The idea of compromise is not an
acceptable outcome for them, because they have long developed a belief that concessions,
marginalization and defeat amount to the same thing. This mentality cannot be
challenged until military realities on the ground have dramatically changed in
favor of the rebels, including finding ways to neutralize Assad’s air
superiority. Until this happens, no serious dialogue, hence no political
solution, is possible.
Increased militarization at a time when opposition leader, Moaz
Al-Khatib, has come out in favor of a conditional dialogue, might seem
counterintuitive to some, but that’s only because their basic proposition about
this conflict tend to be theoretical and fundamentally flawed. In fact, now that
the international community has a credible partner in Moaz Al-Khatib, one who
is willing to bravely go against the prevailing assumptions in his camp in
order to seek resolution to the current crisis, the international community can
now begin to seriously hedge its bets on the opposition. Facilitating a flow of
weapons into the hands of moderate rebels will only enhance Moaz’s standing
among them, allowing him to emerge as a leader with relevance on the ground, capable
of delivering on promises when the time comes for transitioning beyond Assad
rule.
Now more than ever, we have to think outside the usual box. Arab media
report that Moaz Al-Khatib will be taking part on Friday in a meeting putting
him together with American VP, Jo Biden, Russian FM Sergei Lavrov and UN envoy
Al-Akhdar Al-Ibrahimi. It will be interesting to see what comes out of this.
Video
Highlights
Despite the ongoing shelling of their town, members of the local town
council of Daraya, Damascus Suburbs, held their first even press
conference, and briefed attending journalists on the conditions in the town and
the nature of ongoing clashes with the regime http://youtu.be/nz7D2gcLw-g Rebels vow
to continue their resistance. Scenes from the ongoing clashes in Daraya: a
sniper targets but misses a local photographer http://youtu.be/BZlNO4Uw3II Attacking the
regime’s marauding tanks http://youtu.be/ph37HXg6gqw
keeping them at the outskirts of the town http://youtu.be/v7z0VsWd8pI
But more than 80 days of bombardment have taken their toll http://youtu.be/HDuTbiKKvjE
Elsewhere in Damascus City, local activists in Al-Qadam find a
number of unidentified bodies belonging to people who seem to have been summarily
executed by pro-Assad militias http://youtu.be/VCRL3lT9W7o
And the pounding continues http://youtu.be/duimowBab10
, http://youtu.be/I13fz43fVcg , http://youtu.be/L7cPdTePhHU Homes catch
on fire http://youtu.be/S02UmBodu54 The
neighborhood of Midan is also targeted http://youtu.be/uvyBRSgCHCI Nearby town of
Harasta, Eastern Ghoutah, witnesses intense clashes http://youtu.be/CIG83nJh4Jw , http://youtu.be/ba1kK4Jbuhg
The attack on the town of Karnaz, Hama, continues http://youtu.be/7hv5zbE82D4 , http://youtu.be/fHClovDNtj8 , http://youtu.be/dm4MjvOEHCs Rebels try
to take down overflying warplanes http://youtu.be/jXuykqdU_-g
In Aleppo City, locals hold a mass funeral for the 80 victims of the Boustan
Al-Qasr massacre http://youtu.be/fQc5oBZ92EI
, http://youtu.be/jKS2zBzwfH4
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