In a stalemate, chaos is the sole victor. For stalemate is
an illusion behind which reality quietly crumbles, and when it’s finally shed, a
million hungry flesh-eating zombies arise out of its fragments. This Armageddon
is all too real, all too Syrian, and all too… familiar. Unless something deep
inside our minds clicks, this cycle of mayhem will keep repeating. If part of the
blame can rightly be ascribed to ill-suited policies on part of regional and international
leaders, the situation remains for the most part the product of our own
failings.
Sunday February
10, 2013
Today’s
Death Toll: 124 martyrs,
including 11 women and 9 children. 38 in Damascus and Damascus Suburbs, 33 in
Aleppo, 24 in Deir Ezzor, mostly were field executed in Jubeileh neighborhood;
9 in Homs; 10 in Daraa; 5 in Hama; 4 in Idlib and 1 in Raqqa (LCCs).
Points
of Random Shelling: 326 points,
including 19 points that were shelled by warplanes; 3 point using cluster bombs
and with vacuum bombs, and 2 points with explosive barrels; 97 points were
shelled with mortar, 152 points with heavy caliber artillery, and 77 points
with rockets (LCCs).
Clashes: 149 locations (LCCs).
News
Damascus
on Edge as War Seeps into Syrian Capital Soldiers have swept through
city neighborhoods, making arrests ahead of a threatened rebel advance
downtown, even as opposition fighters edge past the city limits, carrying
mortars and shelling security buildings. Fighter jets that pounded the suburbs
for months have begun to strike Jobar, an outlying neighborhood of Damascus
proper, creating the disturbing spectacle of a government’s bombing its own
capital.
Opposition
"would talk to Assad in northern Syria" The aim of the talks
would be to find a way for Assad to leave power with the "minimum of
bloodshed and destruction", Alkhatib said in a statement published on his
Facebook page. Sources in the coalition, an umbrella group of opposition
political forces, said that Alkhatib, a moderate cleric from Damascus, met
international Syria envoy Lakhdar Brahimi in Cairo on Sunday… The sources said that in their talks on Sunday
the two men addressed the question of whether the coalition would formally
endorse Alkhatib's peace initiative. The Muslim Brotherhood, which controls a
large bloc within the Islamist-dominated coalition, is against the initiative. But
the Brotherhood, the only organized political force in the opposition, is
unlikely to challenge Alkhatib's authority directly, with his initiative
gaining popularity in Syria, the sources said.
Iran
and Hezbollah build militia networks in Syria in event that Assad falls,
officials say The militias are fighting alongside Syrian government
forces to keep Assad in power. But officials think Iran’s long-term goal is to
have reliable operatives in Syria in case the country fractures into ethnic and
sectarian enclaves. A senior Obama administration official cited Iranian claims
that Tehran was backing as many as 50,000 militiamen in Syria. “It’s a big
operation,” the official said. “The immediate intention seems to be to support
the Syrian regime. But it’s important for Iran to have a force in Syria that is
reliable and can be counted on.” Iran’s strategy, a senior Arab official
agreed, has two tracks. “One is to support Assad to the hilt, the other is to
set the stage for major mischief if he collapses.”
Syria’s
Chemical Weapons Stockpiles Appear Secure, Dempsey Says “On the
occasions when we have noted movement, they’ve been movements that appeared to
us to be intended to secure them, not to use them,” Dempsey said in a session
with reporters on his aircraft returning from Afghanistan. He added that “our
ability to have a completely clear understanding is somewhat limited. We don’t
have persistent or perfect visibility on” that nation’s chemical weapons
intentions.
Iran:
Syria's Assad Regime Ready To Negotiate Iran's foreign minister says
two sides will have to talk after an opposition leader said he was open to
meeting regime officials.
Deckchairs
reshuffled as Bashar al-Assad founders Mr Assad changed seven
ministers, the official SANA news agency reported. He split the labour and
social affairs ministry into two, bringing in a woman, Kinda Shmat, to head the
latter. Hassan Hijazi becomes Labour Minister. Ismail Ismail takes the finance
portfolio and Sleiman Abbas takes the oil and mineral resources job. The
housing and urban development, agriculture and public works ministers also
changed. Mr Assad has reshuffled the government several times since the
uprising against his rule began in March 2011, the most recent reshuffle being
in August, following the defection of former premier Riad Hijab.
Israeli
newspaper claims to have interview Syrian opposition leader Sheik
Khatib found himself fending off critics from within the anti-Assad movement
who objected to his even speaking with an Israeli reporter, though by all
accounts he did not initially realize that Mr. Bergman was an Israeli.
Lebanon's
Christian Patriarch prays for peace in Syria Rai, whose church
has 900,000 members in Lebanon, a quarter of the country's population, is on the
first visit to Syria by a Maronite Patriarch since the independence of
neighboring Lebanon in 1943. His visit comes at a time when Christians in the
region feel under threat from the rise of political Islam. "(I pray) that
the consciences of local, regional and international leaders are inspired to
put an immediate end to the war in dear Syria ... and bring peace through
dialogue," he told dozens of worshippers inside the church.
Israeli
strike in Syria might be first in series Amos Yadlin, a former
chief of Israeli military intelligence who directs the Institute for National
Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said in an interview that while future Israeli
action could be expected, it would depend on specific calculations of the
advantages and risks of such strikes.
Rebels have been on the offensive in
Damascus since launching a series of attacks on government positions on
Wednesday. They brought their fight to within a mile of the heart of the
capital on Friday, seizing army checkpoints and cutting a key highway as they
pressed their campaign for the city, the seat of President Bashar Assad's
power.
On this week's show, Fareed hears from
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati about Syria policy during a panel of Arab
leaders at the World Economic Forum’s Davos meeting. “We are disassociating
ourselves from what's going on in Syria by all means. We are disassociating because we have a kind
of historical, geographical relations with Syria. And now, today, if we take
any position, really, we would be more boosting the division in our Lebanese
society and between Lebanese citizens. For this reason, we had the position as
the Lebanese government to disassociate ourselves. But this doesn’t mean that
we disassociate ourselves from humanitarian issues. “Today, we are helping and
receiving Syrians without any limit. And why fully we are ensuring for them
shelter, medical care, schooling, food – everything.”
Special
Reports
… this young man carries a burden —
maybe an honor, too — that almost no one else shares. He knows that he and his
friends helped start it all. They ignited an uprising. It began simply enough,
inspired not so much by political activism as by teenage rebellion against
authority, and boredom. He watched his cousin spray-paint the wall of a school
in the city of Dara’a with a short, impish challenge to President Bashar
al-Assad, a trained ophthalmologist, about the spreading national revolts. “It’s
your turn, doctor,” the cousin wrote.
Although not a polished performer in
the political arena, he has managed to install himself in a pivotal role at the
centre of the Syrian crisis
But they told CNN that, despite
enduring many casualties, their morale has not flagged. Though Homs has been
the site of urban combat for two years, the soldiers -- from the front line to
checkpoints -- appeared largely combat-ready.
Syria is Iraq’s twin. The only way
you’ll get a multisectarian transition there is with a U.N. resolution backed
by Russia and backed by a well-armed referee on the ground to cajole, hammer
and induce the parties to live together.
A Muslim summit revealed the sectarian
nature of Assad's Shia Alawite suppression of Sunni protestors and rebels
Syrian city is guarded about relative
calm as governor calls for unity against al-Qaida and intense fighting
continues elsewhere
With the battle for Aleppo in its
seventh month, a series of rebel gains that many locals believe should add up
to sustainable military successes appear to have become bogged down. Roughly
five million of the province's six million people now live in territory
governed by rebels and local civilian councils, said council and rebel leaders.
The rest live in the city's west, across a jagged front line. About a dozen
main rebel factions operate in Aleppo, their names scrawled on pavement and
half-collapsed buildings. Many, like the Tawhid Brigade, are torn by
infighting. Factions are often alienated from each other by larger ideological
divisions. And because nearly all of the fighters hail from the countryside
outside Aleppo or beyond, they often also struggle to find common ground with,
or cede leadership roles to, local civilians. Regime warplanes bomb rebel
territory daily, the government's so-far unbeatable air power serving as a
further reminder of the limits to rebel control.
In his classic study, The Arab Cold
War, Malcolm Kerr charted the machinations of inter-Arab politics during an era
dominated by Egypt’s President Gamal Abdel Nasser. In another renowned work,
The Struggle for Syria, Patrick Seale documented the links between Syria’s
tumultuous domestic politics and the broader contest for supremacy in the
region, stemming from factors ranging from inter-Arab conflicts to the global
cold war. [1] Today, amid the chaos in Syria and the transformations in the
region, these texts, both originally published in 1965, seem all too
contemporary. Once again, regional politics shows many signs of an Arab cold
war and, once again, that broader conflict is manifesting itself in a struggle
for Syria.
Regardless of what might come after
Assad, many minorities have already made up their mind about what they will do
if he falls. "We're leaving," said Hanan, a grandmother and a devout
Shiite who lives in an affluent Damascus neighborhood. "Because we know
that whoever takes the rein after Assad will commit massacres against us."
Shiites are a small minority in Syria. Many religious minorities share Hanan's
fears. This is particularly true of the Alawites, the sect to which Assad
belongs… as Syria's uprising turned civil war drags on, militancy among the
fighters has continued to grow. "In the end, those with guns will rule, at
least initially," said another activist. "They'll be hardened and
vengeful after all this fighting. And Assad's mythology may turn into a
self-fulfilling prophecy after all."
News that Obama vetoed a plan by his
senior security staff to arm Syrian rebels reveals the extent of his
humanitarian impulse. But he must also protect the new UN doctrine of a
'responsibility to protect' by being more open about his Syrian strategy.
My
new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on
January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria
2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my
previous briefing “The
Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The
Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.”
Did
the CIA Betray Syria’s Rebels? Mike Giglio of News week argues
that when “Americans didn’t keep promises” the made to opposition leaders, the
latter “turned against the U.S.”
True. But the antagonism is not absolute or irrevocable. All depends on
whether President Obama will change course soon. Meanwhile, the entire
development should be seen in context
of the Clinton-Petraeus Plan that was shot down by President Obama. People who
made the initial contact with rebel leaders had to halt their activities when
President Obama and his closer circles of advisers rejected the Clinton-Petraeus
Plan. Rebel leaders are not exactly privy to the complexity of American
decision-making processes, and not matter how much, their CIA interlocutors
must tried to explain matters to them, rebel leaders would have simply
understood that aid was promised, but nothing was delivered. As such, the whole
process, the must have concluded, was meant for intelligence gathering purposes
only, and American had no intention of actually helping the rebels.
Moreover, I think we should also differentiate here between certain Obama
appointees, like Clinton, Petraeus and Panetta, and his inner circle of
advisers, people like Thomas Donilon, Obama’s National Security Adviser, and
his Deputy and White Chief-of-Staff, Denis McDonough, just succeeded by Anthony
Blinken. Even people like Valerie Jarret who carried the official title of Senior
Adviser to the President seem to be much closer to the President than other
appointees. Indeed, it seems that Obama has relied more heavily on these
figures, among others, when it came to formulating his foreign policy stands,
than on Clinton, Petraeus and Panetta whose appointment seems to have reflected
first term political calculations than ideological affinity. Things might
change with the advent of John Kerry and Chuck Hagel whose views seem to
correspond to the President’s own, especially with regard to Syria.
Video Highlights
Islamist rebels showcase their own home-made missile with a range of up
60 KM, or so they claim http://youtu.be/zvA2SRVzn0w
Leaked video shows pro-Assad militias torturing a detainee in a
missile base that was later captured by rebels http://youtu.be/k_Ie2LHnKfo Another
video from the same base shows pro-Assad soldiers posing next to a dead rebel http://youtu.be/3CMKvNUAeVk
A third leaked video is even more gruesome, and shows the aftermath of
a massacre perpetrated by pro-Assad militias http://youtu.be/IA9brNT70Ho
The town of Binnish, Idlib Province, has fallen over the last
few months under the control of Islamist groups, including Jabat Al-Nusra,
whose rhetoric has been getting more and more extreme, as the siege of their
town by pro-Assad militias from nearby Shia and Alawite villages continue. The inhabitants
of Binnish now call for the establishment of a caliphate. In this video, we see
a child singing while waving a dagger (near the end) threatening Shiites and Alawites
with slaughter http://youtu.be/-BKUNbDfkxw.
Islamist rebels have been organizing themselves more as a local governing body
as well providing services, such as garbage collection http://youtu.be/US-thZavg5Q and bread
making http://youtu.be/7QHIKB83uEA Moreover,
locals have come out quite vocally against the initiative for dialogue by opposition
leader Moaz Alkhatib http://youtu.be/Hkyr3TfPfuY
Elsewhere in Idlib, rebels attack ad take control of Al-Shaghar
checkpoint, killing many Assad loyalists http://youtu.be/Ewjaq1ZQ2j4
In Damascus City, intense clashes between loyalists and rebels take
place in several neighborhoods, including Al-Qadam (Port Said Alley) http://youtu.be/Ewjaq1ZQ2j4 , http://youtu.be/ZIIbfwp_q_U But pounding
by tanks continues http://youtu.be/1Oj-bV9dzms
, http://youtu.be/NRx5tXz6Enc , http://youtu.be/N7MFwrtuMLw Buildings
catch fire http://youtu.be/LUCOMrzUpmo
The battles in Jobar Neighborhood continue, with more tanks
coming to support regime troops: http://youtu.be/VGcM5aUoXdE
, http://youtu.be/qH-B9hCGgew Survey
of some of the damage http://youtu.be/HU4u8D5Bgzc
, http://youtu.be/1kTOrQ3AVOA , http://youtu.be/5oblEl39fks MiGs take
part in the pounding http://youtu.be/pZKMZbrCC5E
To the West, the pounding of Moadamiyah Suburb continues http://youtu.be/A8nUR5YhyZs And Daraya
http://youtu.be/M_8zAbAU7J4
Further west, along the Lebanese borders, the pounding of the town of Zabadani
continues http://youtu.be/_lgh57gShRc
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