The Assad regime finally responded to opposition leader Moaz
Alkhatib’s offer for talks. The response was somewhat “positive,” and with it, the
game is now afoot. Opposition members had better take a crash course in
negotiation skills. Lucky for them, someone had already prepared a handbook
on political negotiations for dummies and the ideologically impaired. Meanwhile,
rebels continue their advances in hotspots throughout the country. Now, we can
be engaged on both fronts: the military and the political, until something
gives, the state collapses, or both.
Sunday February
11, 2013
Today’s
Death Toll: 109 martyrs,
including 15 children and 9 women and martyr under torture: 41 martyrs in
Aleppo, 33 martyr in Damascus and its Suburbs,10 martyrs in Idlib, 10 martyrs
in Homs , 8 martyrs in Daraa, 5 martyrs in Deir Azzor, and two martyrs in Hama (LCCs).
Points
of Random Shelling: 302 points, 16
points were shelled by warplanes, 3 points by Cluster Bombs, 1 point by
Thermobaric Bombs and 1 point by barrel bombs. Artillery shelling was reported
in 161 points, mortar shelling in 74 points and missile shelling in 67 points (LCCs).
Clashes: 135 locations. Successful
operations include the liberation of Al-Jarah Military Airport, taking over the
Tabqa Dam in Raqqa, the Musiqiya Barracks in Jobar in Damascus City and a Republican
Guard center in the town of Adra in Damascus Suburbs (LCCs).
News
Syria
rebels seize dam, blast on Turkish border Rebels have captured Syria's
biggest hydro-electric dam and battled army tank units near the center of
Damascus, activists said as the opposition renewed an offer on Monday to
negotiate the departure of President Bashar al-Assad. On the Turkish border,
nine people were killed when a car arriving from rebel-held territory in
northwestern Syria blew up at the Reyhanli frontier crossing; Turkish officials
said it was unclear whether the blast was a suicide attack or an accident.
Syrian
minister offers to meet opposition leader overseas "I am willing
to meet Mr Khatib in any foreign city where I can go in order to discuss
preparations for a national dialogue", Ali Haidar, the minister for
national reconciliation, told the Guardian. His remarks were the most positive
response the Syrian government has yet given to the opposition leader's surprise
change of line… In explaining the purpose of the national dialogue, Haidar
raised the prospect of a genuine contest for a multiparty parliament and for
the presidency when Assad's mandate runs out next year.
Syria's
Assad meets new Greek Orthodox leader "President Bashar al-Assad
welcomed Patriarch Yuhanna X Yazigi," said state news agency SANA. "Assad
congratulated the patriarch for the key role played by the Orthodox Church in
maintaining national unity, in the face of the attacks suffered by Syria,"
the agency added.
Special
Reports
Amidst a brutal war, Syria’s
Palestinian community finds itself seeking refuge yet again—this time, in
Lebanon’s famous Sabra and Shatila camps.
The lifeline thrown by Iraqi Kurdistan
to its neighbor extends the influence of Masoud Barzani, the autonomous
region's President, over Kurds in Syria as civil war threatens to dismember the
country. For Syrian Kurds the conflict presents an opportunity to win the kind
of rights enjoyed by their ethnic kin in Iraq, who live autonomously from
Baghdad with their own administration, armed forces and an increasingly
independent foreign policy.
Russia, Others Should Support Efforts
to Ensure Assistance Reaches All
Tal Kalakh, near Syria's border with
Lebanon was one of the first cities to rebel against the regime of President
Bashar al-Assad. It has seen heavy fighting since the uprising began. Many
civilians were forced to flee as government and rebel fighters battled in the
streets. Houses, pockmarked with signs of artillery fire, bear witness to the
fierce clashes that raged here.
The stakes for the two warring sides
couldn't be higher. For Assad, holding the capital at any cost is vital. Its
loss would amount to an enormous symbolic, military, and political blow. His
self-portrayal as the head of a still-functioning state would be decisively
shattered. Regardless of urbanites' skepticism toward the rebels, the loss of
Damascus would mean that they could no longer cling to the president as their
defender. The same holds true for those who still support him out of hostility
to the rebels' presumed ideological and political beliefs, but who lack an
organic link to the regime. Without Damascus, which Assad would never be able
to retake, he will probably lose command-and-control over loyal units across
the country -- except in the northwest, where his most loyal supporters reside.
Where is Syria now? Syria is a country
where random killing has become an everyday occurrence for some of its
citizens, and an interesting sideshow for others. The State's sites of torture,
misery and death are no longer confined to detention centers belonging to the
repressive security apparatus; even universities are now playgrounds for
murderers and thugs. Away from politics which I don't really understand, away
from your theories, debates and analysis, my people are being killed
systematically and all of your well-meaning words seem helpless in all of this.
The situation In Syria is no more political, it is a wholesale purposive
destruction of a society. Whatever the result of this conflict will be, spilled
blood will not dry; and millions of refugees will never forget the humiliation
of waiting aid cars for hours under the falling snow. If anything has to be
made, if anything has to be discussed it should be how to stop this breakdown
of society and this legitimization of criminality. This will help us to collect
our breath. Then we can tackle politics.
U.S. military action other than drone
warfare isn't in favor these days, but Syria is showing how doing nothing has
costs of its own. In overruling his advisers, Mr. Obama has prolonged Syria's
civil war, increased regional instability, and delivered a strategic gift to
Iran, the main enemy of Israel and the U.S.
My
new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on
January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria
2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my
previous briefing “The
Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The
Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.”
National Reconciliation
Ali Haidar, head of the newly established Ministry of National Reconciliation
is not the right caliber person for opposition leader Moaz Alkhatib to meet. But
Alkhatib can delegate someone to go meet with the Minister on his behalf. That
person should be tasked with reiterating opposition demand for the resignation of
Bashar Al-Assad and assuring that a provisional government formed by the
Coalition will be representative of all communities and regions in Syria and that
it will set itself immediately to the task of preparing for presidential and
parliamentary elections. No further details should be brought out at this early
stage. But it would be interesting as well to have the Coalition representative
ask Minister Haidar to offer his ideas as to what exactly is meant by national reconciliation
as far as the Syrian regime is concerned: are they talking about national reconciliation
between sects, regions or political parties? It will be interesting to see to what
extant Syrian officials still want to cloak communal and regional dynamics in the
garb of political ideologies?
As for place of the proposed meeting, Haidar opted for Geneva, but Alkhatib
had earlier in the day offered
areas in the liberated north as an alternative. I think Alkhatib should stick
to his position. Meeting on Syrian soil to discuss Syrian affairs makes far
more sense, and since the meeting will take place under the auspices of the UN,
both sides should feel safe.
Video Highlights
Rebels claim to have recently killed the number 2 man in the 4th
Division, Gen. Said Zarifah, in an operation that official sources in Syria
has not recognized. The number one man in the Division is Bashar Al-Assad’s brother,
Maher Al-Assad, himself rumored to have been injured in a previous attack http://youtu.be/u9puWfyO0R8
Scenes from the explosion in Bab Al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey
http://youtu.be/07zfRVVQz0U , http://youtu.be/X8TimI-qqOE While some pro-regime
sites claimed that the explosion was a security operation carried out by regime
infiltrators, Turkish authorities remain unsure as to what exactly took place,
with speculating that this could have been an accident. Members of the Syria
National Council and the Syrian Opposition Coalition claimed that an opposition
convoy was supposed to go through the crossing around the same time the
explosion took place. Around 20 people were reportedly killed, and many
wounded, including Turkish border police.
Scenes from the battle for the liberation of Al-Jarrah Military
Airport (the tank in this video belong to the rebels) http://youtu.be/k95wUZjhHNs , http://youtu.be/z_68UITZiEY , http://youtu.be/nfZxqHtX4Lo
A delegation representing the Jordanian Baath Party meets with Bashar
Al-Assad and declare their solidarity and loyalty http://youtu.be/KEzhd81Epfg
Rebels in Tabqa, Raqqa Province, take control of a security
branch in the city, as they consolidate their hold over the city and the nearby
dam http://youtu.be/Nnnj3Xjl_mQ , http://youtu.be/V8Lrnpv8trg A tour of
the liberated headquarters http://youtu.be/pINm-09_VFM
Rebels allow regime forces to withdraw from the building and escort them to the
town’s outskirts http://youtu.be/zUZv8amXwoY
Detainees are freed and go on celebrating their freedom http://youtu.be/ROqF5Y-WvRM Destroying a
statue of Hafiz Al-Assad http://youtu.be/iExHn1YASLk
Setting the statue on fire http://youtu.be/3KAFIIrJ1sA
Rebels take us on a tour of the Tabqa Dam http://youtu.be/osNEZrAQk2Y
Rebels in Damascus storm a security headquarters in the town of Adra
and imprison some pro-Assad officers http://youtu.be/bhsVuVQbTSk
Meanwhile, clashes in the towns and suburbs of Eastern Ghoutah intensify
Douma http://youtu.be/i2vQMoyzNdg
MiGs take part in the pounding http://youtu.be/4-RypR4igmo putting out
fires http://youtu.be/krlhcgY23h0 , http://youtu.be/qeTzTY37enc MiGs pound Saqba
as well http://youtu.be/gjPY-n-pNWQ
Tot the West, the regime continues its pounding of the town of Moadamiyah
http://youtu.be/h8W8vXUXnlk
In Daraa City, rebels take over the Harsh barracks http://youtu.be/ABfyTqlSk6k , http://youtu.be/ySdFdY1Vtdc Meanwhile,
clashes continue in the nearby town of Al-Harrah http://youtu.be/TY5kfvrqE1M , http://youtu.be/3SvT-vEC6k8 , http://youtu.be/FXhX_Gl6NJk
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